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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (1220)	12/4/2000 9:31:25 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Because we are on a fiat money standard and not a gold standard,it would be almost impossible to repeat the mistakes of 1930-33. The only way to do it would be to raise the discount rate 1% a month for the next year. Now Volcker did something like that to stop the enormous inflation of the later 1970s and early 1980s, but that's not what we have now. I guess I agree with the Fed (of they are levelling with us) that the greater danger is inflation. But inflation, unless it totally ruins the currency, is a lot easier to survive than depression where people quit doing anything productive at all.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (1220)	12/4/2000 10:52:30 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mike... did you catch the front page of the WSJ today where they were discussing how the US trade deficit is over-estimated due to the inability(unwillingness?) to properly account for the sale of services overseas? They claim that the US service industry (software, IT services) ran a $80 Billion surplus last year and that this trend is likely to expand rapidly over the next 10 years. Just something else to factor into your analysis when you hear the hula-baloo about the trade deficit. I'll have to look for the article. But even if you take away $80 billion from the budget deficit it is still enormous and the real issue isn't really the budget deficit but the current account deficit. But I'll have to dig up that article and look at it. Thanks.