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To: Oblomov who wrote (47026)	12/13/2000 10:44:31 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<I distrust the idea that events are "inevitable". > When you load a spring, and then release, the spring behaves in a very predictable fashion. The cumulative actions of millions of clowns has loaded the spring; Greenspan is merely letting it uncoil naturally. The action of the spring itself may make it impossible for Greenspan to get hold of it again and prevent the natural release. If the spring is moving too quickly, even he doesn't have enough force to stop it. He only has finite inertia. The "spring" is the debt market. The load is the bubble. While uncoiling of the bubble isn't predetermined, it is virtually impossible to keep it from happening. What most people don't understand is that the only time the bubble's downturn could have been prevented was by slowing things during the boom. Now we're falling back to earth and it's merely a matter of steering us into a tree instead of the rockpile that lies straight ahead. And rest assured - our economy is on equally precarious footing as Japan 1990. BC

To: Oblomov who wrote (47026)	12/13/2000 10:45:51 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Ob, the most important point is that the Japanese economy is suffering from the excesses of the 1980's bubble - overinvestment in industrial plant and equipment becoming malinvestment. The scary part is that in many respects the Japanese economy was more sound than our bubble economy. Japan had a high savings rate, trade surplus, a real gov't surplus. TL & EV ignores national boundaries -g- ho ho ho Mike

To: Oblomov who wrote (47026)	12/13/2000 11:27:16 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I can't add anything to the responses you've already got -- I agree with Magner on the US - Japan comparison

To: Oblomov who wrote (47026)	12/13/2000 12:55:30 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I see unemployment rising to perhaps 4.5 - 5% in the next year. hmmm, I see it going higher, and quicker. One thing to keep in mind is how the massive productivity gains will affect things [I don't believe the gov stats, but there has no doubt been gains]. I read somewhere that one farmer can now do what required 17 farmers earlier in the century. These are the essentials; food, energy, clothing, etc. If the economy is going to a standstill with spending grinding to a halt, we simply won't require as many people to provide the essentials. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment gets much higher than people think it can. BWTFDIK?