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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/22/2000 10:01:19 PM
From: Dave Kiernan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
No, I was jesting in reference as to your deciding what to call yourself relative to the analysts. Nothing nasty or mean intended to anything in your interesting post.

Seasons Greetings
Dave K



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/23/2000 12:01:48 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
I keep dipping into Train's book. In the chapter on Jim Rogers, he paraphrases Rogers as:

"In bear markets, things first decline to reasonable prices, then they fall to cheap prices, and then they reach unbelieveable giveaway prices. After that things get really bad, and everybody gets cleaned out."

I don't even think we are down to "reasonable" yet.

I kind of like shorting the Dow and putting Merrill Lynch and the Wells Fargo Bank. But then I am the same person who once goosed the Venus de Milo. (Just like you I am not antifeminist, and I did it out of pure reverence. And I am shorting the Dow and putting Merrill out of deep respect for our venerable institutions. <g>)It begins to look as if Merrill may have made a not too good call in selling warrants on the Euro exercisable at .86 (it's at .92 now). Wonder whose idea that was.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/23/2000 12:17:02 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
To all: Merry Christmas!
This year has been the most rewarding year for me ever, because I cashed out my momentum chips from the NASDAQ casino at the right time. This thread has been a voice of sanity in these crazy times. I look forward to Y2001 and to the contribution of the threadsters here.

If anyone is intersted I will post writeup of three or four speculative picks for next year, all of them biotechs.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/23/2000 12:56:08 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike or anyone, what are the symbols for Fanny Mae, and Freddy Mac.

Thoughts on which is a better put play?

Someone just said to me on this "are you nuts they have record profits"

My reply was perfect!
This is what I see.
Something tied to housing which will soon see a serious decline.
There will be loan failures.
We are at an all time high, in spite of this.
Can things get better or will they get worse?

Thoughts?

M



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/23/2000 5:13:23 PM
From: Bill/WA  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
MB,

Re:**http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm**, posted by hjsimpson - thanks homer.

A few questions. <<Today, Bloomberg reported that the
combined Chase and JPMorgan would have the largest exposure to Xerox, as both banks are on the hook for $375 million as part of the $7 billion emergency credit line.>>

I'm holding Put Leaps on both JPM & CMB. What happens to them, if & when they merge? BTW, did you know CMB owns Brown & Co.?

Also from Prudent Bear:
<<This afternoon, Dow Jones ran the headline” “Moody’s Won’t Downgrade California Utilities to Junk Before January 4th.”>> Now if I'm not mistaken, wouldn't alot of brokerage acct's and mutual fund money markets be holding this "stuff"? And if so, if this thing starts to snowball, how secure will people's money be in these MM funds if they have to start dealing with the SICP to get their $$ out??

And lastly:
<<From yesterday’s company release, we see that “as of October 31, 2000, MBIA had net par exposure of approximately $438 million to Southern California Edison and $590 million to Pacific Gas & Electric.”>> Maybe a good time to Put MBIA?

TIA,
Have a Happy Holiday and thanks for all your help,
Bill/WA



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/24/2000 9:29:28 AM
From: JHP  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
FMO will triple Jan 3 when they announce new loan!!! imho
FMO Press Release
SOURCE: Federal-Mogul Corporation
Federal-Mogul Sets Analysts Meeting for January 3, 2001
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Dec. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Federal-Mogul Corporation (NYSE: FMO - news) will host an analyst meeting in New York on Wednesday, January 3, 2001 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. EST to discuss the following items: the status of the Company's bank credit facilities; an updated view of its asbestos situation; and the strategic global initiatives under way for operating performance improvement.

(Logo: newscom.com )
The meeting will be web cast live on Federal-Mogul's site, www.federal-mogul.com . Please sign on to this site fifteen minutes prior to the scheduled start time. (In case of difficulty in signing on to this site, fmftp.fmo.com has been established as a back-up site for this presentation.)

In addition to the live web cast there will be a listen-only conference call. In order to receive the conference call dial-in number, domestic callers must RSVP to 800-289-0579 and international callers must RSVP to 719-457-2550. The confirmation code to RSVP is 430775. Please dial into the conference call fifteen minutes prior to the scheduled start time.

A recording of this call will be available from 1:30 P.M. EST Wednesday, January 3 through Tuesday, January 9, 2001. To access this recording dial 719-457-0820 (for both domestic and international callers), then enter 430775 as the confirmation code.

The web cast will be retained on Federal-Mogul's web site through January 31, 2001.

Headquartered in Southfield, Michigan, Federal-Mogul is an automotive parts manufacturer providing innovative systems and solutions to global customers in the automotive, small engine, heavy duty, agricultural and industrial markets. The company was founded in 1899. Visit the Company's web site at www.federal-mogul.com for more information. Federal-Mogul's press releases are available by fax through Company News On-Call, 800-758-5804, ext. 306225.

SOURCE: Federal-Mogul Corporation
Chase Raising Federal-Mogul Loan to Deter Bankruptcy


New York, Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Chase Manhattan Corp. is trying to raise $550 million for Federal-Mogul Corp., to keep the maker of Champion spark plugs from filing for bankruptcy, said a person familiar with the matter.

Chase arranged a $1.75 billion credit line in 1998 for the Southfield, Michigan-based auto-parts maker and would be among the biggest losers if mounting asbestos claims push the company to seek court protection from creditors.

If Federal-Mogul declines the additional credit or if Chase fails to find other lenders, the company that traces its history to 1899 could follow other targets of asbestos suits, Armstrong World Industries Inc. and Owens Corning, into bankruptcy.

``I don't see how the company can turn around without getting the asbestos problems behind them. The best way to do that would be through bankruptcy,'' said Premila Peters, a fixed-income analyst with KDP Investment Advisors.

For Chase, writing off its exposure to Federal-Mogul would compound an earnings slowdown. Earlier this week, the No. 2 U.S. bank said a capital markets slump and higher-than-expected merger costs with J.P. Morgan & Co. would cause it to miss estimates ``substantially.''

The new $550 million in loans would add to the earlier credit line, for which Federal-Mogul provided no collateral. Chase is asking the company's other U.S. lenders to put up $200 million, institutional investors to inject $150 million and European banks to add a further $200 million, the person said.

``It's no mystery that we're looking to renegotiate our bank credit agreement, and we hope to have that wrapped up by year's end,'' said spokeswoman Kimberly Welch. She declined to comment on the Chase agreement or terms in the agreement.

Asbestos

Federal-Mogul's shares have plunged 91 percent this year and its earnings fell 99 percent in the third quarter as more than $6 billion of acquisitions in 1998 failed to pay off and sales of car- replacement parts slowed.

Most of Federal-Mogul's asbestos claims stem from T&N Plc, a U.K.-based maker of gaskets, seals and other products it bought in 1998. Early in the 20th century, T&N was an asbestos supplier for automotive brakes and the shipbuilding industry. T&N's involvement in the shipbuilding industry is prior to 1972, when they got out of the business, said spokesman Steve Feeny.

The auto-parts maker also has asbestos liability because of its October 1998 acquisition of Cooper Industries Inc.'s Cooper Automotive unit because the Abex and Wagner brands used asbestos in making auto parts and for industrial products. Federal-Mogul also has some asbestos liability because of its 1998 acquisition of Skokie, Illinois-based Fel-Pro Inc, mostly involving gaskets and packing products, the company said in a recent Securities & Exchange Commission filing.

As an incentive to lenders, Federal Mogul, the world's largest maker of engine seals and bearings, would add collateral to the new loan, giving banks ownership of its assets should it still file for bankruptcy, the person said.

Banks refused to renew a $450 million credit line for Armstrong because the largest vinyl-flooring maker wouldn't give up collateral. Two weeks ago, the company filed for bankruptcy, saying it was engulfed by asbestos claims.

Should Chase fail to raise the new money, Federal-Mogul ``will have little choice but to seek bankruptcy protection sooner rather than later,'' said Peters.

As of September 30, 2000, Federal-Mogul provided a total reserve for all of its subsidiaries and businesses with potential asbestos liability of about $1.3 billion.

Federal-Mogul shares fell 6 cents to $2.00.

Dec/15/2000 16:39 ET

For more stories from Bloomberg News, click here.

(C) Copyright 2000 Bloomberg L.P.


' regards john



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (87495)12/24/2000 1:31:55 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
To All, Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukkah and Kwanza. I may be scarce the next couple of days, so I wanted to get that in.

I went to the track nearly all day yesterday, and I was miserable for nearly 8 hours. I took my Mother and after a couple of hours she asked, "do you think we're going to win anything today?" I figured when we went from simulcast to live, my handicapping would pick up. In the first nine races, I had 7 losers and two kiss your sister wins. I was really Bah Humbugging. But, on the last race, I spotted one of those anomalies that handicappers always look for:

The top jock was staying late to ride a really crappy looking horse in a low purse maiden race. On Xmas weekend? Smelled fishy to me. He went off at 25 to one and I put him in a quinella. He won by about 10 lengths and, by a nose hair, second place went to a nice 6 to one horse I had on my ticket. Whew! Made up all the losses plus a Whataburger on the way home. And now I'm full of "ho, ho, ho."

Best to all.