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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hobo who wrote (2860)	1/4/2001 2:45:47 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Another dark economic cloud: Today's factory orders, although up, are still down over the last three months. More ominous however, is that factory inventories were still rising sharply - up .5% in Nov. after a .7% rise in October. This will be the second consecutive quarter of rising inventories and could lead to a real nasty inventory liquidation in the first quarter. The is standard economic stuff - real textbook. As inventories swing from accumulation to liquidation you get a huge change in production. This will result in factory slowdowns and layoffs, which if allowed, will roll like waves through the economy. The only way to stop this is massive interest rate cuts. I have been looking for a 4% funds rate by summer. I may have to drop my projection to 3 1/2%.

To: hobo who wrote (2860)	1/4/2001 3:42:47 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

toscano, I'm not an investment advisor and only develop scenarios and opinions to use as directional snap shots for my own investments...., also for the fun of peaking into international politics and monetary markets. But I don't know much that's useful. This mutual fund is an odd bird..., it was established to be short the dollar and to take advantage of a falling dollar. But I suggest you understand exactly what it does before investing, because it's very unusual..., being invested in this fund over the last 5 years would have been a big mistake. ICPHX - FRANK/TEMPLETON HARD CURRENCY siliconinvestor.com Other then this there are a growing number of mutual funds that invest completely outside of the USA markets, some even targeted towards specific countries. I know very little about direct equity investment in foreign countries, but with the growing international community of investment houses, there must be other venues besides stocks listed on our exchanges and closed end funds available for that purpose..., perhaps others can give some examples. New vehicles are being added all the time...? John Pitera is...! a financial advisor, and knows a great deal about international markets and overseas investing. Perhaps a chat with him will bring further ideas...? Subject 32953 piteraperspectives.com ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ My basic premise is that the international traders were buying into America's success by purchasing our debt and equities to be apart of the dramatic growth this country was experiencing. Now that the political winds have changed, (and not very cleanly), these same players will be less likely to invest in this country and begin moving money outside of the USA and into other areas of the worlds markets. This is due primarily to the changing political climate and the perceived polarization continuing. The economy is still relatively strong and sound, but the new administration will fail to "Get It Right" and provide the environment for continued deterioration of our economic strength. The change in international sentiment began with the dollars break in Oct and November of 2000 which can be seen in the double top and classic "M" formation of the dollar index. If I'm correct..., this will continue into the 100.00s and perhaps the 0.80s over time. futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com This would be followed buy reductions of flows into the bond sector, which is probably already evident in the corporate bonds. Tax cuts will not help attract investors to the bonds, only debt reduction and a continued surplus will..., and bond rates will remain subornly high. But I don't know where and how one one finds or follows this kind of information. Henry and John do...! These two events will be followed by further declines in the Equities markets of the USA. If it really gets bad Gold may stage a come back along with the Swiss Franc. There maybe cycles evolved as well..., as in Schumpeter, Kondratieff, and the Keynesian principles of self destruction. In some ways the polarization of today mirrors that of the 1860s and the North -- South disagreements. Perhaps we should look at the 1860-80s for guidance. Finally, Oil/Gas markets are now consolidated into conglomerations of a very few and powerful companies. These blocks now control to an even greater extent the price of energy through supply channels all over the world. The small player has been dramatically reduced. It is my contention that the $10.00 a barrel price some years back was a fabrication to open the door for consolidation so the suppliers could sustain $25-35.00 today and into the future. Prices should remain high for many years to come. I also believe these policies are mistaken..., hastening alternative energy, and significant reductions in the use of fossil fuels over the next 25 years. Furthermore, there's evidence that fossil fuels are abundant and being found quickly by new technologies and the consolidation to date has occurred in a similar responce as "Debeers -- diamonds" responded to control supply. (As you may know diamonds are now being found in abundance and Debeers has turned to marketing to retain it's markets.) But this another post. I've been a strong uptrend kind-of-guy for many years and now find myself rethinking the next two to four years. I'd expected the next 15-25 years to be filled with very powerful growth world wide. Now it looks like that's on hold. Chip