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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (15939)	1/5/2001 12:30:34 PM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Steve, Finally someone who isn't posting some sort of hyperbole or generalized conjecture! I personally think if JDSU was trading around $35 it might be more reasonably valued. Even at $35 it would be sporting a p/e of like 43. As you know it's a show me game. If JDSU can grow earnings by 40%+ then it's priced to perfection. My problem with high p/es is that any stumble and the stock will drop like a rock. So in other words I personally like to know I'm investing and not gambling.

To: SJS who wrote (15939)	1/5/2001 2:22:33 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

If the growth rate of this sector is 25% (I think I am being conservative here, but you tell me.....), I don't see JDSU as wildly overvalued here with a PE of 56, or even a PE a little higher IF the sector growth rate is reasonable and sustainable. Chase H&Q has JDSU growing 201% in 2000 and 119% in 2001. I don't know where you get the 25% growth figure, but the RHK report I have shows the terrestrial WDM components market came in at $610M in 1999 compared to an earlier estimate of $470M. For 2003 they’ve changed their estimates from $2.2 billion to $3.3 billion. Arrayed Wave Guides will grow from $190M in 1999 to $1.2B in 2003. Thin film filters will reach $1.3B. Total WDM market will grow from $1.6B in 1999 to $8.2B in 2003. You do the math and tell me how much these estimates have to drop to justify discounting JDSU any more than the market already has. They are the giant and with the SDLI merger without a close second. I'm not saying to buy the stock here. The market is far too crazy to invest based on company fundamentals alone. Right now the bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war and few are willing to place heavy bets on either side. I'm nibbling but leaving lots of room to add lower should the bears win this round. If I were investing simply on fundamentals, I'd back up the truck. Alas. . . Pat

To: SJS who wrote (15939)	1/5/2001 4:59:00 PM
From: Stocker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi SJS, you asked..... Merrill Lynch currently thinks that JDSU will earn about .80/share in FY 2001 on about 3.85 billion in revenue. As a forward PE, that's only 56 (at a price of 45/share). If the growth rate of this sector is 25% (I think I am being conservative here, but you tell me.....), I don't see JDSU as wildly overvalued here with a PE of 56, or even a PE a little higher IF the sector growth rate is reasonable and sustainable. If WS thinks it can re-afford an expansion multiple to optics if we move out of this depressing psychological funk and buying restarts, I don't see why we can get back to between 80-100 within a year, or maybe higher. Thoughts on this? Comments? I hope you don't mind my two cents. I've said before that I'm looking to re-enter JDSU, but only once the risk subsides. What you mention about JDSU not being wildly overvalued has a lot of merit given where it once was. Still, there are some problems in determining price to pay. Just looking at the variables you mentioned...... First, what if earnings or revenue estimates come down? It's easy to see how a few forecasts could be lowered, especially if there's any hint of a slowing when JDSU reports. I think there are a lot of firms looking a reducing numbers right now and waiting for the Q report. Second, a 56 PE with a 25% growth rate could be way too high given that the market simply isn't willing to pay up for growth anymore. Longer-term, fast growthing co's should have PE's higher than their growth rates but there's nothing to say in the short-term that the market couldn't overshoot to the downside with it's bearishness and value JDSU at something like PE 40, or in the extreem, even at par with the growth rate. The frenzy can work both ways and we certainly saw what it can do to the upside earlier this year. As an example, there are a lot of net stocks currently trading for much less than the values of their cash in the bank. That's not say JDSU would ever get near that level but given the difference, there's a lot of potential room to the downside yet. It all depends on whether the street's fears are confirmed or not. Finally, growth in the sector might be expected at 25% or 75% but whether that growth is slowing or not is currently a point of great debate. There is a lot of risk to these levels of growth as people fret over whether or not we'll see a recession. Me, I may buy a bit here and there on the way down (call's) but I'm waiting until I see the white's of their eyes before I buy stock! NT was in a similar position in the fall of '98 where it was so obvious the market had gone too far, you knew you just had to buy, you felt like you just couldn't lose. And that was in the context of a very ugly market then too. I'm waiting on the sidelines for that type of confidence level to return. Good luck to you. PS, Damn!!! By the time I finished my two finger shuffle you guys had pretty much covered what I've mentioned above. Should have paid some attention in typing class!