Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (114522)	1/5/2001 8:54:39 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I can buy the bull case except for sentiment indicators which is still way to optimistic for a lasting bottom. In 1998 the put /call ratio was over 1 for several days in the Sep - Oct period. Number of bullish investment advisors were 38 % in 1998 bottom. Currently bullish investment advisors % is over 50 %. The put/call ratio has spiked but immediately come down. We need to see more fear don't you think to put in a lasting bottom. Plus the consensus on Wednesday was that the market had bottomed because the fed eased and we all know how reliable consensus is. The rally of the Oct 1998 was met with a lot of skepticism. I think its because Greenspan was able to get us out of the mess in 1998 that there is still so much complacency out there in Greenspans ability to bail us out. (In fact you yourself have complete faith in Greenspan )isThats why the sentiment indicators are nowhere close to where they should be to mark a bottom. Thats my bear case. The bull case of course is a lot of liquidity has been added to the system and eventually the economy will turn and the market will turn before the economy turns. Thanks Anindo

To: craig crawford who wrote (114522)	1/5/2001 9:11:53 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Craig: What makes you think six weeks of redemptions is a bottom? How about six months? In Japan it took years -- they all just kept selling and selling and selling, even though the government brought interest rates down to within a hair of zero. This is not Japan, but to think that a few weeks of selling marks a bottom borders on wishful thinking. As for your cash on the sidelines theory, this market is getting blood transfusions from AG, there is no cash on the sidelines waiting to come in. I am hoping for an uptick early in the week on renewed false hopes for an escape from this bear. But as the graveyard gets closer, it sure seems like the whistling is getting a lot louder and more shrill. AG will need to cut again next week just to stabilize the market where we are now. The warnings you are looking for will be in the conference calls as companies report. They will follow the APPLE warning syndrome - a small disappointment now and a bigger one announced in the CC for the current quarter. Good luck.