To: Chris who wrote (40753 ) 1/12/2001 1:30:20 AM From: Lee Lichterman III Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787 Chris - I agree you have to have some artistic freedom in the charts. With the whipsaws, running of stops etc, I too will "fudge" a line from time to time and I tend to like sticking to the bodies of my candles more than the shadows when I draw mine. Sorry I haven't been posting much. I have been very busy and am always so tired lately... Here are some things to make up for it. <g> By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, January 12, 2001 - 01:21 am: Edit A truely awesome read on SI. A MUST read!!! Too long to post here and re-do all the bold face etc so I will just post a link.... Message 15170537 By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, January 12, 2001 - 01:00 am: Edit Just started running charts again and we need to keep an eye on the IT companies as they are breaking out. Not sure what is up but KEA, CPWR, CA etc are all running up on good volume. New leadership???? I just read that the Treasury pumped in a bunch more money today which explains the rally better. It seems all liquidity is being driven into the most specualtive issues again. I guess the drop last year taught people nothing. A 5 Billion repo and some coupon passes were injected today. Simply amazing. Fed adds $654 mln in reserves via coupon pass - Reuters Securities - 11:55 am Fed says buys Tsy coupons 2/15/2008 thru 8/15/2022 - Reuters Securities - 10:49 am Fed adds $5.490 bln reserves via overnight repos - Reuters Securities - 10:38 am biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com I can't say it better than Heinz did right here short sweet and to the point..... From: heinz blasnik Thursday, Jan 11, 2001 10:00 PM Respond to Post # 57394 of 57413 yes, bad news were ignored, buy signals given, etc. problem is, everybody knows it, and everybody expects the same, namely a big rally. this is not to say we might not get one...it's certainly possible. see however my post about sentiment and potential indicator failures for a lone opposing view. this would be the first blast-off in history with II bulls at a new 52 week high and Rydex ratios at a screaming sell signal. but of course it has to be considered that the Fed is printing like crazy...possibly too much to fight against. maybe the leveraging up process can be renewed, the margin debt bubble re-expand, etc. i was anyway looking for a rally to commence at the end of Jan., and a pretty strong one at that. NOT if we rise into late Jan. - then the cycle would invert. a big clue will be tomorrow's commitments of traders report. if the commercial net short persists at a very high level, the rally will soon be doomed again. it has generally paid to follow the comms. during the entire denouement. if they switch to net long, better switch with them. the dollar is only falling vs. the Euro, and those currencies that were trading in tandem with the Euro (Swiss Franc, Pound, Ozzie buck and a few others). it is however rising against the Yen. i surmise that the Euro carry trade is ending and an attempt is afoot to revive the Yen carry. at least ONE of the major currencies MUST fall against the USD to keep the capital flows needed to balance the current account deficit flowing. should the Yen begin to rise in tandem with the Euro, a crisis would erupt immediately imo. the rationale given for the Euro's strength is that Euro zone growth is eclipsing US growth now (true, it is). however, it is really hot money flows determining currency relations these days. so you are correct inasmuch as European based institutions are likely repatriating at this point, while Japanese institutions are doing the opposite, i.e., resuming Japanese capital exports. a possibility that could upset the balance is a dollar BK against the Euro if the carry unwinds in crash like fashion, concurrently with a renewed economic crisis across Asia brought on by the competitive devaluations now underway in the region. interestingly, it is China that looks once again most stable in this regard with its inconvertible currency.