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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (41994)	2/10/2001 7:41:36 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Kevin McKechnie (Pimco Global Innovation Fund) picked AMAT as his "play of the week...expects bookings to be down 30%, and "that is as bad as it typically gets for AMAT, and leads to a bottom in the stock". The fact that everyone now loves the semi equips (they were stronger than any other group until a week ago and were stronger early in the day Thursday and yesterday until the Nasdaq dragged them down kicking and screaming) leads me to believe the worst isn't nearly over. The masses are always wrong. At the bottom no one will want them. I am more likely to take what Wilf Corrigan said three posts ago as evidence of what is likely happen to AMAT. IMHO Jay

To: John Trader who wrote (41994)	2/10/2001 9:37:35 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 70976

What is your guess?, we go up or down after earnings release? Anyone else reading this have thoughts on this? As I see it the lowest AMAT goes is about 38. After earnings it trades between 40 & 50 depending on the FED and other influential factors we haven't thought about. Here's why. Anyone that wanted to dump AMAT has had a whole week to do it.If you really believe that a stock is heading downhill why wait until the bottom of the hill has been reached? Once a pattern becomes widely recognized its usefullness ceases.(selling on the bad news for example). Because this pattern is so widely recognized too many people already have tried to take advantage of it. Mr Kearney has presented some interesting charts, & I hope that he is dead wrong. His charts would indicate that AMAT is headed for the low 30's. I believe that many TA people would agree with his assumptions. To his expectations I would say that events dictate what the charts will look like. His theory would be that the charts will dictate what events will take place (much lower stock price). Well we have the whole week-end to debate this. Perhaps we should separate the semi-equips into two groups. One would be those that are having a good quarter and outlook, and those that are having much lowered expectations for the rest of the year. Jerome No disrespect meant to Mr. Kearney. His theory is just as valid as any other that I have read about on these threads.

To: John Trader who wrote (41994)	2/10/2001 11:12:25 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

John, I think investors tend to seek out information that confirms their prejudices. I certainly do this. Yes, right now the tech gloom is darker than before - and with justification. The magic improvement in 2H01 will probably be later in 2H01 rather than sooner. But if recovery is discounted early enough, AMAT may see a bottom this month or may already have seen it. All of the above is guess work. It's important for us to clearly state our assumptions: after continuing the order decline a few more months Applied will see increasing orders. We also assume Applied will continue to be managed well. The NAZ is now about where it ended 2000. As of now the 2 rate drops have not done much for the market. Maybe the third one will. I won't argue with your 'buy' rating even if later the stock becomes a bit cheaper. It's just not predictable because it depends on sentiment. Gottfried