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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 7:18:41 AM
From: que seria	Respond to of 95453

BigBull: Whassup with such heat? No one dissed you. I'm sure most of us semi-lurker, non-industry, under-researched types value your posts as I do, for being informative, contrarian and insightful. Beware Goldbug's disease, which has been known to metasticize across assets classes and afflict even those sitting in cash as they eagerly await others' financial comeuppance. I think you're right on the money with your facts and inferences, though, as usual. That's why my NG-weighted E&P money is almost entirely in companies that will have good to great comps going forward, even at US$3.50 gas. If a company has a big discovery beginning to be exploited, which the informed investor does not believe the market has correctly priced in, and especially if that company is moving from zero cash flow, investors in it can take declining product prices in stride and look past this cycle.

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 9:36:53 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, Bravo, Bravo, a great post indeed and one that removes a few bricks from my wall of worry allowing me to peek through and see that perhaps there is really nothing on the other side to hold it up should the wall topple. Surely there is nothing wrong with your pointing out of the obvious economic statistics which folks in a bull market (energy) tend to ignore. I hope the current bulls on the thread remember how early and correct you were on calling the turnaround to come in energy back when SLB was in the low 40's. Contrary opinions, which yours is, excepting a few others here, should be respected for what they could be, correct! The timing is the thing for me. I believe we could have a few good weeks here if the weather is helpful. IMHO, folks aren't scared yet, the vix is still low, the news is having the Truman(?) effect (a recession is when your neighbor loses their job, a depression when you lose your job) and folks will keep up their wealth effect bull market driving heating energy using (just witness CA) habits until it really finally registers! Whether we have a week or two or a month or two is up to future events that help the dismal facts register in the minds of the public. In any case, a good call and a courageous one too, IMO! Best Regards, Roebear

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 10:32:50 AM
From: Telemarker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, clearly your points are to be seriously considered. Caution is always in order. Yet, the monetary side of this matter is starting to receive more and more of my consideration. US economic weakness stands to undercut the value of the Greenback and the Fed. has vowed to go down beating on the monetary pump. Combine this with the fact that world oil and US natgas are priced in Greenbacks, and it is possible that a reduced demand led collapse in oil and gas prices may not be a sure bet. It's the universal consensus that US inflation is dead, done and gone that interests me. Am I the only one thinking about what happened in the 70's?? Should any of this play out, sitting on a hoard of Greenbacks may not be a very enviable position. If one is not inclined to do so, what else makes sense? Seems to me that energy is pretty defensive here. Low valuations (even with way below-market commodity price realizations) of certain industry securities may add a further cushion against risks. The new electronic era and related overinvestment mania have certainly created manufacturing overcapacity in that area, but also tremendously expanded energy consumption capacity. Presently, I judge there to be an undercapacity of energy production capacity. Granted, if this is the case it can change and change quickly. I claim no prognostication abilities, nor any view that others ideas or conclusions are inherently inferior to my own. Just to be complete, if one advises that energy should be sold where would you suggest going with that capital? Thanks for your contributions. Best regards,

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 10:33:10 AM
From: Timelord	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull - With the risk of pouring fuel on the fire, some interesting articles from our local bird cage liner - BATTLING THE SLUMP - High-tech job growth has slowed, not stopped sfgate.com Deathwatch website mentioned in the article. Layoff's, what layoffs? Note the list extends for 40 pages. search.thestandard.com While I don't buy that doom is imminent, the economic situation is uncertain enough that I've taken and cleaned all my portfolios (over the course of the last year) of garbage, thank you trading gains for that luxury <g>, and am now 65% cash. When I close my last two losing driller positions for gains (hopefully) - NE & GLBL - I will be nicely positioned for continued S/T trading. My only other deference to E & P land is LOILY and SEV, which I will continue to hold long term. I made the mistake of ignoring economics in '98 and paid a heavy price for it in my quality of life and my net worth - it won't happen again. This latest run in the OSX provided an opportunity to unwind my heavily margined OSX positions with nice gains to boot, and for that I am eternally grateful. Had a very gentle reminder of the "dark days" during our little plunge below 100 in December. Ahem. Remember to keep an eye on your pocketbooks and not on your egos, those losses are hell to make back. Alex

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 1:08:38 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, hello. Jeez, throttle back a little bit. We all appreciate your point of view and I, for one, miss your commentary. No need to raise the veins on your forehead, eh? As always, identifying the gross trends is a whole lot easier than gauging the magnitude of impending change. We're getting soothing messages from the talking heads about how the worst is over, but look closely - there's sweat on their upper lip, just like there was on Nixon's when he told us he wasn't a crook. The music in the background says differently. Here's my view: The economy will slow down a whole lot more in the next 2 quarters and the recession - I believe there will be a moderately bad one (there is a mild one already) - will last around 3 - 4 quarters, with recovery emerging in spring '02. Contrary to what you say, I do believe that there is a new paradigm of sorts with regards to energy prices, historically oil is priced in the $10 - 20 range, I believe that has shifted to the $15 - 25 range as of this year, with the usual fever spikes delineating the norm. The reality of depletion has begun to sink in by default as smaller fields are brought on line with more expensive rigs and production infrastructure, this will inexorably drive the costs of the commodity upward and has already begun to do so. I am still long on strong gas E&P's, contrary to the seemingly conventional wisdom on the thread, my XTO (which hovered briefly around $28, spiked at $29(not $30)) is now pushing $25 again, cost basis to me is slightly over $6. My OEI is steadily breaking 52 week highs, cost basis slightly over $8. My EEE is looking good as well, cost basis at $1.625. Wish I'd bought more, but then I'm just an ignorant driller. Profits for these will be taken when I sell around March-April, as will profits for many of the OSX stocks I hold. I'm subscribing to Slider's notion of beating the Mo-mo's to the buffet table. As for the coming tech wreck - my guess is the buzzards come home to roost for the summer rally, techs will get steadily beaten about the head and shoulders until then. I plan on getting my share of the carcass in May-June, before the buzzards start - that's when I believe they will bottom out. There may be more attractive buys than techs at that time, after all they will be in slow recovery for the rest of the year at least, but if sufficiently depressed even slow recovery could mean appreciable gains for the tech sector. If there's something better, why, I'll just change my mind. This is not at all a "don't worry be happy" approach, I'm very concerned at jumping in and out at the right moment in time, but I'm not one of the fickle, I'm generally a buy'em and hold'em long term investor. It seems to be working out for me, for the amount of time I have available to watch stocks between watching rigs, my returns are quite good even if not "movie star" quality. Best of luck with your investments, I would be interested in your forward strategies. Regards to all, Aggie

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 2:16:17 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

WHO LET DA' DOGS (and Big Bull) OUT !?!?!?!?!?!? ... get 'em Bullsky ~ I hear you loud & clear. This is exactly why I kept praying that we could sneak in the OSX rally to new highs before Q1 Tech Reporting starts hitting in April - along with other Economic news; because while "As GM (Ford & Chrysler) goes - so goes America" is no longer as true as it once was... it is still true to a great degree. We can not have a manufacturing recession and new-paradign walk our away around it in the equity markets, or in the economy. Remember that post I linked showing how many major US Banks now have derivative exposure; primarially in short gold, short euro & long US dollar/equity plays; that are exponential multiples of their own capitalizations ? Remember Greenspan nearly in a panic months ago to rush new "bank failure" reform thru congress ? Remember his warning about their not being another LTCM type of bailout available ? Remember his warning about "not being too big - to fail ? Remember Buffets refusal to participate in this new tech paradigm & his monumental accumulation of physical silver ? Or, how about the exodus of Julian Robertson, Soros, Shopkorn, Druckenmiller and of late - youngsters like Vinnik & James Cramer ? - coincidence that they just walked away at the top ?... think they just may choose to sit out a Nikkei type of slide ? Think they saw a Nikkei type of slide ? Remember Bill Seidman's warning about there now being "TWICE" as many banks facing collapse & failure today as they did during the prior S&L crisis if we have an economic collapse, or a Commercial Real Estate crisis ? - wonder if Greenspan's bank failure rush has anything to do with this as well, or if the California Tech slowdown, or the Utility crisis just might lead to a little Commercial Real Estate Collapse - considering those huge prices Silicon Valley Co's were standing in line to pay then; versus now; when no one wants to build a Tech Plant in California today - given the energy costs & crisis ? Hmmmmmmm ? Remember after the inital 1929 crash; there was a nice rally bounce - before the ultimate bottom was put in... I still say; the DOW had to rollover & we have to see cash & not sector rotation become the option; before we truly have a market bottom. The only thing that garners my curiosity for a bullish bounce in tech here - is this recent surge in M3 Money Supply is exactly what preceeded the last NASDQ spike ...I think perhaps this time; that money is staying, or rotating into the DOW stocks - explaining its strength; or even perhaps it is just maintaining equilibrium in money flows as perhaps the foreign repatriation of funds from US markets is stronger than we think ... Anyway; untill we see clear & unequivocal signs that the US is pulling out of a recession versus plunging deeper into one and that tech has recovered; this is trading territory and not a real positive risk vs reward scenario... it may prove very smart to sit much of the next few months in cash & in defensive hedges such as gold/silver...and to not fail to take profits into all further strength here in Oils and to stop out on the first sign of rollover. Bullsky - welcome back & keep the commentary coming... I'd love to sell all my Oils on a move to 150-155 here prior to Aprils Q1 tech reporting and be able to rotate to a near full portfolio weighting in Gold/Silvers around XAU 40...and then see a NAZ 1650-1850 final capitulation by summers end... then; arguably we will have an investable bottom and not just a tradeable one... Ohhh and PS: Are all the "Nat Gas stocks will go straight to Blue Sky Heaven" afficianado's aware that there is no - NGOPEC ? Rig count is exponentially higher this year than last; larger offshore Gas Projects will get attention; there is much supply in the "curve" coming online from the earlier spike in Drilling and slowing supply & conservation and fuel switching will lower demand. Again - someone, anyone show me ANY demand statiistics that show that this new digital & broadband economy is creating some type of demand curve spike - it doesn't exist... just a normal economic expansion growth curve that can & will be met exists imo... Nat Gas may return to a $2/$3 environment much, much more quickly than anyone thinks and Oil if OPEC really has learned its lesson - may make Crude Oil the real story; but demand and not supply is the key there as well and the USA is the dog that wags the global economic - demand tail... so I'd be heeding any signs of the ole' dog tiring here...

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 3:22:13 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

BigBull Thanks for providing some needed fear into my investment thought processes. I will continue to modify my plans daily/hourly to respond to the greater Macro issues. I have made enough over the last 6 weeks that I can afford to more readily see both sides of the issues. I have no margin, ~20% cash and will take profits when stocks hit my price targets. With the level of the economic downturn revealing itself daily, I may have to become more of a short term trader than I would like to. As far as EIA data I see: Figure 2 OECD stocks well below normal and projected to stay so for some time. As a result of OPEC's discipline and the non OPEC's inability to deliver oil, I see US stock levels projected to stay below normal for the next two years. I see real GDP forecasted for 2.6% for 2001, With NG I see extremely bullish circumstances for some time, So how the investment community responds to all this I do not know. But there seems to be a nice window of opportunity here over the next few months as the economy reveals its hand. I will not be waiting on the sidelines for the worst only to find out that either the economy is recovering or investors have dived into energy for safety.

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 3:41:27 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

"Jolly Roger"? My Dearest General: Strip off that little Pikachu decal on your so-called "Jolly Roger", and slap up a real Skull & Crossbones instead. So far, very few people on this thread have taken the opportunity to publicly capitalize on the downside potential of specific stocks in this sector... most recently, Kodiak_bull (MDR, GLBL), Snewts (GLBL), yours truly (FGH, HEC), and a few others. One would think that, with such heightened bearish talk, a truly honorable opponent might actually raise the sword, ride to the front of the brigade, and lead the charge down Recession Valley. So I challenge my esteemed opponent to choose a weapon: Musket, sword, or bayonet... I have no preference. <gg> Prove to us that you are greater than Banks, Frémont, Pope, Hooker, and other worthy, but vanquished foes! Think of the revelry 'round future campfires as the young troops regale the mighty tales of woe 'mongst the General's conquests! In the words of William Shakespeare, Henry IV, II, 3: By heaven methinks it were an easy leap To pluck bright honour from the pale-faced moon Or dive into the bottom of the deep, Where fathom-line could never touch the ground, And pluck up drowned honour by the locks. Respectfully yours, General Thomas J. ("Stonewall") Jackson <ggg>

To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 9:57:58 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Hi BigBull, There's always two sides to every story, but in the current situation you seem to figure only the negative factors should count. eg--- There's layoffs, but overall the employment situation is still strong. But you only look at the layoffs, or at least that's all you mention in your posts. Where's the balance? In Australia I heard a descriptive turn-of-phrase which was used about people who could only see one side of an issue. They were called 'One-Eyed.' Irt the economy --- Will things get worse? Much worse? Maybe. Maybe not. I don't know. I don't think anybody really does. But you are certain. You have been a great source of info & informed opinion here in times past, but now you seem to have become 'One-Eyed' and to tell you the truth I think your opinion has much less value than it used to because you seem to have made up your mind and are only interested in info that supports your already formed conclusions. Info on the other side of the scales is ignored. (In your recent posts, at least.) Also, imho your posting doesn't inspire confidence that you are forming your opinions dispassionately. jmvvho. Not meant to 'trivialize, demean, and belittle' you. (btw, If you felt I did that when I posted to you that 'The sky is not falling' sometime back, I'm sorry. I meant that in a friendly joshing way.) regards, diana