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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (42148)	2/14/2001 8:28:30 AM
From: DBrian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"The bar is set so low now that next quarters earnings should easily me met and probably surpassed. This is all a set up(both deliberate and accidental) for the bull market to follow." I agree completely with this statement. JDSU was another one that lowered the bar so much it can't help but blow away future eps. DB

To: michael97123 who wrote (42148)	2/14/2001 8:45:18 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Mike, Amat's future guidance was " we don't know". My dealership has a glut of vehicles - I don't know what my monthly sales rates will be.January was better than expected and feb looks good.The problem was November and December were slow. I think the stink Al Gore made about the election just threw everyone a delay.I wouldn't have thought it would have that big an impact but it seems to be the one traceable variable. That being said,IF sales rates continue I'll be ordering more vehicle for production in April - order next month.My inventory glut will have been a 90 day delay - I watch it closer then a lot of dealers so let's say the average is 120 days. That will impact 2 Qtrs.I don't know other business models but I bet it will be quite similar in that our buying market is the same group of buyers. If the workdown is 2 qtrs then the market will anticipate that at least one quarter early. I think we'll see a reversal in Q2. I'm braced for a fast (volatile) shake - I keep coming up with Sept and Oct 1998.It was all over by Oct 8,the market turned and didn't look back. It will be a scary gift if it occurs and we might pickup some cheaper margin money along the way.Although most people will have sworn off margin by the time it's over. Buy BIG, Buy DEEP - whenever the vix hits 60 - you'll have to be quick!! Bob