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To: isopatch who wrote (87517)	2/16/2001 6:48:35 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Optimism about U.S. stocks surged to a 14-year high last week, according to a poll by Investors Intelligence newsletter. Who are these people polling? Certainly not the majority of people on this thread. I would be interested in doing a similar sample here on SD to see what % bulls and bears are contributing here. I like what Bill Gross had to say and there's a lot to be said for his point of view. One should keep in mind while reading his commentary that he's a bond market guru and therefore has a slight bias toward's his investment vehicle of choice. One other issue is that sticks out is the P/E of the market based on figures for 1/1/00. The dow has basically been flat since then and the Nasdaq is down substantially from that start point of reference. While I believe there is plenty of downside possible at this stage (just like the run to the top kept going on momentum, so will the drop to the bottom go on farther based on this same phenomenon), quite a bit of the fluff has been squeezed out of the market. jmo mh PS...it was suggested that I ignore a certain poster here and I have done so. My final comments on this matter. First, I'm truly amazed at the words and concepts that are now being attributed to me when all I did was ask a few questions. Secondly, it's also amazing how easily someone can pull one's words out of context. The message gets twisted, weaved and reshaped into some new form so far from the original intent that I even wonder myself how I could possibly have written such thoughts (...oh, but that's right, I didn't write them- only portions of them).

To: isopatch who wrote (87517)	2/16/2001 6:54:15 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OT/Drudge on new arms race. Keep an eye on the defense stocks for relative strength during any important market decline. Am planning to do some buying in that sector when the broad stock market looks like it's forming an Intermediate OR Long Term bottom in the weeks and months ahead. A word to the wise. Selected defense stocks are going to be excellent LT investments during the years ahead. Be patient and wait for good entry prices to present themselves. Iso "XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX FRI FEB 16, 2001 08:01 ET XXXXX FOUR MINUTES APART: RUSSIA TESTS MISSLES BY LAND AND BY SEA Russia test-fired nuclear-capable ballistic missiles from both land and sea on Friday, it has been reported. The tests came back-to-back, less than four minutes apart, according to ITAR-TASS. MOSCOW, February 16 (Itar-Tass) - A missile submarine of the Northern Fleet launched a ballistic missile on Friday at 13.28 PM Moscow time during a strategic command and staff exercise of the Russian Armed Forces. MOSCOW, February 16 (Itar-Tass) - Russian strategic missile troops successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile "Topol" at 13:34 PM Friday. The ballistic missile was launched in accordance with a scheduled military drill. The intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from Plesetsk cosmodrome in the north of Russia. MORE The tests come amid increasingly angry exchanges of words between Moscow and Washington over weapons proliferation and U.S. anti-missile defense plans. Russia says it will counter proposed U.S. defenses by beefing up its land, sea and air nuclear deterrents. Leonid Ivashov, the head of the chief international military cooperation department of the Russian Defence Ministry, said on Friday: The deployment of the National missile defence [NMD] system by the USA will lead to the destruction of strategic stability and resumption of the arms race. NEW ARMS RACE TO BE WORSE THAN AT TIME OF COLD WAR, RUSSIAN GENERAL DECLARES "Multiple statements by high-ranking officials of the Administration and the new U.S. President that the NMD will be unquestionably deployed are conspicuous," Ivashov said. "The U.S. is making it clear that it does not intend to take seriously objections expressed by Russia, China and other states as concerns such activities." "Our estimates show that NMD deployment will result in upsetting the strategic balance between 'the shield and the sword'. "This will result in a new spiral in arms race, involving outer space, and an additional impetus to proliferation of rocket technologies. Incidentally, in a worse version than at the time of the cold war," the general declared. If the United States deploys a national missile defense system, it will be virtually spearheaded at the Russian and Chinese rocket potentials, Ivashov said. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated North Korean leader Kim Jong Il on his birthday on Friday. Kim Jong Il, Secretary-General of the Communist North Korean Labour Party, supreme commander-in-chief of the Korean army and chairman of the defence committee of North Korea, was 59 on February 16. Putin said in a message of greeting that further development of cooperation between Russia and North Korea meets the interests of both countries and makes a tangible contribution to strengthening security on the Korean peninsula. Developing..." drudgereport.com

To: isopatch who wrote (87517)	2/17/2001 1:50:43 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

isopatch, Bravo on that Bill Gross post. I'm playing catch up here on the thread posts over the last few days, been way to busy with a special assignment at work. I was startled by the synchronicity, I wouldn't call it coincidence, when I read your post. You know I PM'd you a brief note last night where I sketched out a very similar take on the demographics that Gross is mentioning. I think I'll refer to them as DEMONgraphics for the Pig in the Python generation from now on. Synchronicity could be a good definition of the current market. To the thread I'll just make this simple statement, focused to the boomers here. Look around. Look at your house, your office, heck, look at your Life. Do you have TOO MUCH STUFF or what? This could be one whale of an inventory reduction? Wasn't it Peter Lynch who said don't forget to observe what's going on in your world to get investment ideas? Any wonder then in these times of Nasdaq angst that I look around and see two PII 400's (that the kids committed various monstrosities to, ggg) that need fixed up but aren't really worth the time $$ and effort? Perhaps I am the "victim" of a long and happy marriage and it is effecting my perspective, as so many divorces within the boomer generation have applied miscreative destruction to the assets of many, but even that negative economic activity lessens as people age. The economy can't afford for people to stop spending and start saving, but that is the read I'm coming up with, a few more whacks at the averages and a lot of Joe Six Packs are going back to something safer. That is, if most of them weren't up to their earballs in debt and well on the way to spending their lives in servitude to their plastic masters. While I tend to be bullish on gold, I am also considering the fact that it's price action the last few years signals deflation. Have to weigh that in the equation, what happens when all the inflation thats been packed into the stock market indexes the last five years comes out? Combined with a credit crisis? The ramifications are numerous and somewhat conflicting with the plain deflationary signal gold is giving. One thing that confuses the possibilities is globalization and what that means down the road for the US economy and dollar. Everyone is placing their bets on the favorite horse, with Greenspan being its name. But there is a dark horse in the field and it coming up fast, a horse with no name, for what do you call it when Greenspan gives his third cut and no one comes to the party? Will Greenspans winning streak end? Never happened before doesn't mean it can't! 80% cash, 10% gold (tripled down wed thursday drop & sold Fridays rally) and 10% energy, until I see how the wind blows coming down the home stretch in the Interest Rate Trifacta. At least in this game I can change my bets right up to the finish line. Best Regards, Roebear