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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (120)2/18/2001 4:01:03 AM
From: Level Head  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 51713
 
I have been reading the information here with great interest. I've read the "Warning", including their list of things to do. I think, perhaps, that they are missing the essential problem. I'm not certain that I know what the essential problem really is, but a thought experiment seems to suggest that something is wrong. Consider:

One magical day, the entire contents of the United States, some 280 million of us, are transported to Africa. At the same time, the much larger population of Africa is whisked to the United States. All of this happens in mid-sentence, with each population group confronted with the tools, resources, and climate formerly enjoyed (or not) by the other group.

What do you think the situations would be like in 5 years, or 10? How about 50?

I propose that within the lifespans of most who made the transfer, the African nation would be thriving, and the United States residents would be struggling with the aridity of most of the western states, and the infrastructure problems of getting resources of the continent to the locale where they are needed. The US is not, in fact, a friendly place -- in much of it, you would die outdoors from extremes of exposure.

There would be a few New Americans who, while living relatively primitively, would be doing so in grandeur, and at the expense of millions of their "subjects" who would be steadily killed off, while the technology level would never rise far from the "lost" state just after the transfer.

If you think that the above scenario is plausible, then you must agree that the natural resources of the two continents were not very much a factor, and therefore are not now much of a factor.

Should the new residents of the United States of Africa remain at the primitive level they were deposited into? While their consumption would remain low, who would benefit from that artificial suppression?

Any thoughts?

Level Head



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (120)2/18/2001 9:11:56 AM
From: Poet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 51713
 
Ooo! It's great to see you here, Ray. I hope you stay and join in on the discussion.

BTW, I read in the NYT yesterday that the Dems have been putting roadblocks in the way of that bankrupcy bill.



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (120)2/18/2001 10:54:35 AM
From: hobo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 51713
 
Good morning Ray,

What a great site, I have bookmarked their main page, and I LOVE the pictures in it. Almost as good as the Impressionists (NOT) -g- I do like them.

I find it supremely ironic that the pro-life crowd are so small minded and indifferent about the degradation of life for all of us with their insistence on incessant breeding. To what end?

The short answer is I do not know, their blindness in their faith is so powerful that they dismiss any research or scientific study that proves to them that we are headed for total disaster. If not by "extinction of our own species, instead, a lowering of quality of life that for the many, the question is clear... "Is life really so "Precious" ?

Read on... it is projected that soon there will be 2 billion people in total poverty.

They simply continue with policies that have been constructed more than 500 years ago and at best, based on a fallacy.

I like this paragraph:

***********************************************

A young Canadian policy analyst named Thomas E Homer-Dixon, author of several calmvoiced but frightening articles on the linkage between what he terms "environmental scarcity" and global sociopolitical instability, reports that the amount of cropland available per person is falling in less-developed countries because of population growth and because millions of hectares "are being lost each year to a combination of problems, including encroachment by cities, erosion, depletion of nutrients, acidification, compacting and salinization and waterlogging from overirrigation." In the cropland pinch and other forms of environmental scarcity, Homer-Dixon foresees potential for "a widening gap" of two sorts between demands on the state and its ability to deliver, and more basically between rich and poor. In conversation with the journalist Robert D. Kaplan, as quoted in Kaplan's book The Ends of the Earth, Homer-Dixon said it more vividly: "Think of a stretch limo in the potholed streets of New York City, where homeless beggars live. Inside the limo are the air-conditioned post-industrial regions of North America, Europe, the emerging Pacific Rim, and a few other isolated places, with their trade summitry and computer information highways. Outside is the rest of mankind, going in a completely different direction." That direction, necessarily, will be toward ever more desperate exploitation of landscape. When you think of Homer-Dixon's stretch limo on those potholed urban streets, don't assume there will be room inside for tropical forests. Even Noah's ark only managed to rescue paired animals, not large parcels of habitat. The jeopardy of the ecological fragments that we presently cherish as parks, refuges, and reserves is already severe, due to both internal and external forces: internal, because insularity itself leads to ecological unraveling; and external, because those areas are still under siege by needy and covetous people. Projected forward into a future of l0.8 billion humans, of which perhaps 2 billion are starving at the periphery of those areas, while another 2 billion are living in a fool's paradise maintained by unremitting exploitation of whatever resources remain, that jeopardy increases to the point of impossibility. In addition, any form of climate change in the midterm future, whether caused by greenhouse gases or by a natural flip-flop of climatic forces, is liable to change habitat conditions within a given protected area beyond the tolerance range for many species. If such creatures can't migrate beyond the park or reserve boundaries in order to chase their habitat needs, they may be "protected" from guns and chain saws within their little island, but they'll still die. We shouldn't take comfort in assuming that at least Yellowstone National Park will still harbor grizzly bears in the year 2150, that at least Royal Chitwan in Nepal will still harbor tigers, that at least Serengeti in Tanzania and Gir in India will still harbor lions. Those predator populations, and other species down the cascade, are likely to disappear. "Wildness" will be a word applicable only to urban turmoil. Lions, tigers, and bears will exist in zoos, period. Nature won't come to an end, but it will look very different.



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (120)2/18/2001 11:10:24 AM
From: epicure  Respond to of 51713
 
Your jeremiad was very good

please post as many as you would like



To: Raymond Duray who wrote (120)2/18/2001 11:12:03 AM
From: hobo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 51713
 
Continuing....

I find it supremely ironic that the pro-life crowd are so small minded and indifferent about the degradation of life for all of us with their insistence on incessant breeding. To what end?

Here is another thought. and I quote another paragraph from the site you presented:

************************************

"Are you hopeful?" I ask. Given that hope is a duty from which paleontologists are exempt, I'm surprised when he answers, "Yes, I am."

I'm not. My own guess about the midterm future, excused by no exemption, is that our Planet of Weeds will indeed be a crummier place, a lonelier and uglier place, and a particularly wretched place for the 2 billion people comprising Alan Durning's absolute poor. N"at will increase most dramatically as time proceeds, I suspect, won't be generalized misery or futuristic modes of consumption but the gulf between two global classes experiencing those extremes. Progressive failure of ecosystem functions? Yes, but human resourcefulness of the sort julian Simon so admired will probably find stopgap technological remedies, to be available for a price. So the world's privileged class that's your class and my class will probably still manage to maintain themselves inside HomerDixon's stretch limo, drinking bottled water and breathing bottled air and eating reasonably healthy food that has become incredibly precious, while the potholes on the road outside grow ever deeper. Eventually the limo will look more like a lunar rover. Ragtag mobs of desperate souls will cling to its bumpers, like groupies on Elvis's final Cadillac.

************************

In a way, this is already happening, more evident in the third world where poverty is there for all to see, yet industrial growth and commerce seems to be their "key to success", "the bridge towards a better place" and so on....

But what about security ? the walls surrounding homes are getting taller, body guards abound and kidnapping is the booming business of the poor. Ah yes, and then there are the drug lords that cater to ..."more advanced" societies in their hunger for drugs....

Indeed, every sperm is precious... continue on, like lemmings they march on .... not necessarily to extinction, but for a life worthy of street dogs.

Sorry for being so pessimistic on this subject, but the idiocy of the pro-lifers and the evidence at hand, can only yield the above scenario, as I said already taking place.