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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/20/2001 5:48:44 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

My guess is for a low of $18 in April. Then it will trade sideways to slightly up for the rest of the year. We'll see $30 by December 2001 and $35 by Jan/Feb. Of course, my predictions in the last year have been pretty much garbage, but I'm betting that the market will run up in Jan next year on anticipation of a pull out of the technical recession we will have hit by July of this year.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/20/2001 6:05:11 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Jacob, I'm with you. Put me down for your estimate. 18 for this year and 12 within the next 3 years.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/20/2001 7:17:00 PM
From: Chris Carlson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Mr. Snyder et al, I would like to posit my opinion. I bet we see a small bounce tomorrow followed by some sideways trading until the time this week or next that Mr. Greenspan lowers rates another 50 basis points. At that point CSCO will bounce up with the rest of the market to the high 20s/ low 30s and trade in a range from 28 to 36 until the next earnings report. At this point we will realize the sky isn't falling and, golly, wouldn't it be great to own some CSCO! So I'm saying we're there today. We may know tomorrow if I'm wrong. This isn't a prediction, it's a guess. Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard and I'll probably lighten my load soon anyway. But when you've owned this baby for a few years as I have, it's easy to be philosophical about paper losses which turn out to mean a 270% paper profit instead of a 800% paper profit!

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/20/2001 7:35:45 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Jacob Here's my educated guess. Low for 2001: 21 2002: 65 2003: 95 It just depends how deep this slowdown becomes. We probably won't have a good handle on that until the end of this year. regards, Eric

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/20/2001 11:07:39 PM
From: Lenny Rosow	Respond to of 77400

Jacob, Here is a copy of my thoughts back on 02/08. Nothing's changed since then. Lenny To:werefrog who wrote (48284) From: Lenny Rosow Thursday, Feb 8, 2001 12:26 AM Respond to of 49166 Werefrog, E-wave says 18.25-19.00. 161.8% extension of wave 1/A from the top of wave 2/B & the 261.8% retracement of wave 2/B from the top of wave 2/B. Prior price clusters were stalling points but she's in open seas now! Anybody have a web site I can send a gif off too so a link can be posted from here? Lenny

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/21/2001 4:16:36 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hello Jacob, In good fun, (a) The disorderly retreat in 2001 (I am predicting that whatever happens, it will happen this year, regardless of maestro action), enforced by rollback of debt, fortified by competition (as the gadgets gets more standardized), poisoned by margin decrease, handicapped by sales slowdown, will see CSCO give back 5 years of gains (historic average for mania hangover) from the March 2000 peak price of $80/shr, taking us to $8/shr low for the year; (b) By historical precedent, disorderly retreats has even taken tech companies' valuation to their book value, thus putting CSCO at, oops, $ 3-4/shr. In CSCO's case, let us be generous, and give them 2x book, so $8/shr again; (c) Multiple of free cash flow ... yikes, $8/shr again! And I am being optimistic about CSCO's prospects. Chugs, Jay

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/21/2001 11:57:07 AM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 77400

I'll go with $16. Really it's just a shot in the dark, I have no idea. In the longer term in the best case scenario, I see Crisco dropping below the $100 BILLION cap mark, which would be about $13. Worst case scenario would be 1X sales, which by that time may be $4. More likely, I'm thinking something in the 1.5-2.5X sales range, which could be $6-9. It's really too hard to call a bottom price, except to say we are no where close at the moment. Much will depend on how bad the economy gets. I think the game is over, so I don't see much hope for even a mild recession. At best a recession, at worst the great depression II. As for calling a bottom on Crisco, I'm going to be watching commercials net short position in the Spoo's (COT numbers). When they move, I'll move. chic

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49151)	2/21/2001 12:16:03 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77400

Hi Jacob - For me to call a bottom on CSCO doesn't feel right. It's like watching a neighbors house burn and taking bets on when the roof falls in. I'm going to pick $15. My logic: I asked my son and after a few questions like what did it used to be ($80) and how much was it last week ($30) and so on, then he said, confidently, "fifteen dollars". When I asked him why he was so confident he looked at me and said, point blank, "I just know". I am completely out of my league when it comes to dealing with logic like this. But since it seems to represent the majority reasoning in the market... might as well ask people who think this way. I expect to be completely wrong! John. P.S. If it goes below $11 you probably won't get to tabulate the results 'cause a lot of places like SI are likely to get eviscerated if the knives come out.