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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (47721)	2/21/2001 12:20:41 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

<<That SUNW downgrade should have been done 10-20 points ago not all the way down at $22>> Why would they even think of squandering a good downgrade 10-20 points ago when it would have the desired effect of bringing prices even further down from already low levels to maximize profits of their associates who were short? Anyhow the conventional wisdom is that now the FED's hands will be tied due to the high CPI number, so we're in for stagflation. That seems a bit too cut and dried, but what do I know.

To: American Spirit who wrote (47721)	2/21/2001 12:22:53 PM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

AS, We expected SUNW downgrade and subsequent losses. Remember these posts? Message 15027598 Same with EMC. . . Message 15114996 Subsequently, on the long-term, we were right to play SUNW short. Message 15030058 If your money is tied up in a particular technology, you need to be questioning those who work professionally in that industry. . . and getting their perspective on your companies. Example: When I designed the Insighters servers, I questioned dozens of networking pros, who gave me their impression that servers are getting smaller, lighter and cheaper and that the larger, expensive models were rapidly becoming white elephants. That was all I needed to hear. I think that the same thing is happening with EMC. I can buy 65 gig hard drives for a few hundred bucks. Hot-swappable for a hundred more. As tech companies tighten their belts, their appetite for expensive top-of-the-line names diminishes . . . .and as demand goes, so go earnings. Rande Is

To: American Spirit who wrote (47721)	2/21/2001 12:45:02 PM
From: bosquedog	Respond to of 57584

Don Luskin wrote this and it seemed humorous enough to post it here. I'm on record having called the top within days last March -- but I never imagined that the decline from the top would be so brutal and so persistent. Since the top, I've called for recovery too many times and been too bullish for too long when it hasn't materialized. As one flamer put it in an email to me last week, I've "looked at more bottoms than Hugh Hefner."

To: American Spirit who wrote (47721)	2/21/2001 12:45:07 PM
From: RJL	Respond to of 57584

Shocking to some, but not to others. It's still a grossly overvalued company and should be in the teens if not lower. Just because it's been cut in half doesn't mean it's a good value. You can't value a company strictly on where the stock price was during a mania. A short-term technical bounce maybe, but in this type of economic environment, buying a stock like that is insane IMO. -- Rich P.S. I have no position short or long on EMC.