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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 12:19:53 PM
From: laodeng	Respond to of 196876

Tom, Tom, and Tom, So much like last June. =DJ Wireless Cos Dn-3: Bad News For Qualcomm In Europe, Asia 23 Feb 11:56 Briskly awakened by Motorola's bleak projections on semiconductor and mobile phone demand, investors found more reasons to worry about the wireless sector in the European press. In an interview with the Financial Times, Qualcomm founder and Chief Executive Irwin Jacobs said third-generation services in development weren't likely to be commercially viable until late 2004 or early 2005. That is two to three years later than originally thought. The day's news from Asia wasn't any more reassuring. The South Korea 3G wireless market won't be available to Qualcomm for a while, as South Korea's Ministry of Information and Communications said Friday it will delay selection of a code division multiple access 2000 service provider. This will give more companies an opportunity to participate in the bidding process for the 3G wireless license, in which Qualcomm is involved. Qualcomm is a member of the Hanaro Telecom consortium, which was the sole bidder for a CDMA 2000 business license late last year, but failed to secure it. The last blow to the U.S. wireless sector came from home. Deutsche Banc analyst Brian Modoff Friday downgraded six companies in the group, including Qualcomm. Modoff said wireless carriers won't be able to finance their spending on telecommunications infrastructure, affecting wireless equipment vendors. "Carrier financing issues that have impacted every other segment of the telecommunications market are now weighing on the wireless carrier market, slowing capital spending, extending sales cycles and impacting the supply chain," he noted, adding that carriers are focusing more on profitability and less on network expansions. Modoff also downgraded Airspan Networks Inc. (AIRN), DMC Stratex Networks Inc. (STXN), Powerwave Technologies Inc. (PWAV), Stanford Microdevices Inc. (SMDI) and Tekelec (TKLC). -Elena Molinari, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4047; elena.molinari@dowjones.com (END) DOW JONES NEWS 02-23-01 11:56 AM Copyright 2001 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. laodeng

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 12:28:30 PM
From: Pullin-GS	Respond to of 196876

>"All it takes is ONE major European carrier to switch..." Investing in hope is a quick ticket to the poor house...;-) Translation: High PEs can and often are tolerated by Wallstreet, ....especially when future business growth figures are pretty much locked in (Pre-2000 Cisco comes to mind). But to base high-PEs (generaly speaking anything over 25 in this market climate) on "if one carrier switches" or "if that" or "if this" is ludicrous.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 12:45:03 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 196876

In a sense, the GSM cabal is much like a cartel, OPEC comes to mind, trying to enforce a price. If one of the members of the cartel bolts, the entire structure falls apart. You are absolutely correct, all itakes is one Euro carrier to try to seize a competitive advantage. It will happen sooner or later. The problem, of course, are the Euro standards bodies. Still waiting for Mark Roberts' prediction from last year that ETSI would allow CDMA as a standard. Glad I didn't hold my breath. vbg.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 12:47:55 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 196876

Ramsey: Those of us who sail recognize a sea change. What we have here is a sea change. The story of the FUDsters was the WCDMA would be (often reported as is, repeat is) 80% of the 3G market. Now, with all the carnage, it is clear that ain't so, and it ain't going to be. As you suggest, China is the swing here. And which way will China swing? Never certain of course, as nothing is, but what looks more likely now is that China will test CDMA One, then 1x, then 1xEV and in the meantime see how GSM and GSM/GPRS do. That is a very very very good position for Qualcomm. And especially when Qualcomm has gone way far out to help Chinese companies and agencies to understand, build capacity for, and handholding/problemsolving to make real CDMA products come out of the sausage grinder in China - not imported (except for some widgets and "know how"). The contrast with the Europeans trying to insist on more than 50% ownership of Chinese subsidiaries (and/or dependence on European equipment exports) for 3G is clear as a bell. Even the desperation of the Korean government to be sure their powerhouses such as Sumsung have a vibrant local market are key elements here. The Korean government is talking to the Chinese government. The Korean suppliers are mounting joint ventures re:CDMA in China. And both China and Korea see a potential huge CDMA market beyond their borders - now the world is opening up. (Sadly the Korean operators are dogs in the manger - but nothing is simple or easy.) And on and on. Best. Chaz

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 4:38:43 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196876

All it takes is ONE major European carrier to switch to the 1x camp and the war is over. Agree and here is one possible scenario. Mark Roberts first reported many months something about Europe opening up to CDMA in the not-too-distant-future. Now he is saying we could see a switch. Here is my candidate and I think it has been in the works for a while. VOD gets new spectrum and makes an infrastructure deal with ERICY. Deal says that ERICY must include other vendors, technologies. This is cover for a coming 1X overlay in the new spectrum. For VOD they get to make money on the new spectrum much sooner than they must know will happen with W-CDMA. Remember, Peter Gent (VOD CEO) should know all he needs to about CDMA from VZ. ERICY needs the infrastructure business in the worst way; and they might get to sell dual mode phones made with a QCOM dual-mode (1X/GSM) chip. VOD, ERICY and QCOM begin to lay out the plan for making this happen. They realize that they need to create an "accepting" atmosphere for this coming switch. Key to this is waiting for and getting non-QCOM agreement for the reality that w-CDMA will not be ready for prime time for at least two more years. Also key is QCOM gaining the GSM rights it needs. Now that these last two points have happened, I will be looking forward to good news.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7692)	2/23/2001 8:26:21 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196876

Ramsey, I agree with all but your first point, and differences are what make life interesting. Why should the British or German govts renegotiate their deals? To modify an analogy already used by a British Civil Servant, posted here, and never challenged: Say, you had had a lot of unused space in a busy town, and several companies had told you they would like to use that space to sell coffee. You didn't know how much the spaces were worth, so you had auctioned off a series of such spaces. You had reasoned that the coffee sellers would have a better idea than yourself, and trusted to the market. Well, you restrained the market slightly; you had ensured that there would be no monopoly in coffee bars in your town. The auction was a success. You got a lot of money. Some of the winners were merchants from your town; others were from elsewhere. The thing that had made them all excited was all the new versions of coffee they thought they could sell. Not just boring coffee, but expresso, capuccino... The list went on and on. The trouble is that the merchants in your region had assumed they could adapt their old coffee machines to produce the new stuff. Now, the local merchants are finding it much harder to produce sexxy flavours with the old machines. In some cases they can, but it takes all day to produce just one tiny cup. They can't run businesses like that. They come to you and ask for a reduction in their rent, much of which they paid in advance by the way. You could reduce their rent. If so, they might be able to get by - serving tiny cups to very few patient people. Expresso would be both expensive and take a long time to arrive. Even in this case, it is likely that the firms would eventually get tired of trying to adapt their old machines and would buy in the technology from abroad, but it would take time. Alternatively you could say, "Sorry, you knew the rules, I'm standing firm." Maybe one or two firms would go bankrupt. So what? Other firms would buy the leases from the bankrupcies. It might be a blow to civic pride to lose what had been a successful firm, but many townspeople have shares in firms from far away, and one local firm (BT) is almost universally disliked in its hometown for exploiting its monopolistic position whenever and wherever it had one. A more likely outcome would be that the local firms would swallow their pride, scrape up money by selling non-core businesses and borrowing more, the buy the better machines abroad. This would be great for the seller of the multi-faucetted machines (Qcom), and it would make the new coffees available quicker and cheaper. It would also mean that the public would pay fewer taxes or get better public services. That's because of course, Ramsey, you didn't own the space that was auctioned, the people did, and they should get the rent due them. Ashley Ps. Irwin Jacobs yesterday reminded the European firms that a) They were slow in developing new machines b) They could keep the front end of their old machines and connect them up to Qcom machines.