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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randall Knight who wrote (7750)	2/24/2001 11:26:07 AM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196952

Carriers who are spending billions on new spectrum aren't just going to sit around and watch their cash float away while they wait for W-CDMA. They will act. And they will act fast. CDMA2000 is here right now. Then we should see the cancellation of GPRS contracts very soon. If we don't, then don't count on the EU carriers not being stupid enough to bring their companies to the brink of bankruptcy. Just look at how stupid T is being! A few weeks ago I said the situation in UMTS land was screaming for a 1X/GSM chip, we got it. Now I feel the situation is screaming for Dr J to do a full blown cost analysis complete with a couple of his fampus slides showing the cost of installation of GPRS vs 1XEV and then the cost of ownership for the two. We know what the EU carrier's problem is, MONEY, they need to reduce their capital expense as much as possible and generate new revenue asap. We have the solution to save them, Q should put it in black and white and let the creditors who stand to lose the most money on the carrier's blunders put the pressure on them to go what makes sense and works here and now. Not some promise 3-4 years down the road. But it all starts with GPRS cancellations, so far I don't see any.

To: Randall Knight who wrote (7750)	2/24/2001 12:24:07 PM
From: jackmore	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196952

<<People are starting to believe Dr. Jacobs. That's a good thing.>> Thanks to the timing of IJ's observations about wCDMA rollout prospects, coincident with Alcatel's admissions, and the signs of operator doubt at the GSM conference, we now have the delay issue squarely on everybody's table. It won't be easy for the wCDMA proponents to dismiss. Where will it ultimately lead? Dunno, but a major chink in the cartels armor is now exposed. "News" of a delay is just a truth revealed for anyone who has been paying attention. What is interesting is the timing of IJ's remarks, and where he made them. It's another indication of a more aggressive strategy on Q's part, IMO. It was not an accidental utterance! I think the first indication of a shift to a more aggressive strategy was the announcement by Q that applauded the AWE decision to take the wCDMA route (pre-empting anti-Q FUD and also pissing off AT&T in the process). Then we have Sulpizio "boasting" of a "universal" chip (that could neutralize the cartel's roaming argument for their flavor) followed shortly by the announcement of the MSM6xxx family of chips. Now come IJ's skeptical outlook for wCDMA rollout, and the announcement yesterday that CDMA chip growth is flourishing while others were predicting that GSM is expected to see slower growth this year. This is not the same Q we saw last year. The one that just turned another cheek to a massive FUD campaign. They are emboldened this year; maybe by China developments. Dr. J smells blood. /jack

To: Randall Knight who wrote (7750)	2/24/2001 1:27:05 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196952

This should be obvious but I feel the need to point out one more thing. The reaction by the investment community to Dr. Jacobs' assertion that W-CDMA will be delayed by at least two years is telling. He has been saying this repeatedly for the last two years at least. Suddenly it is big news. Why? I dont think my memory of the various statements that IJ has made about W-CDMA are the same as yours. During the last couple of conference calls they have been asked about W-CDMA and the have responded with statements like "mass commercialization in '03". Occasionally, IJ would throw in '04 but primarily they used '03 as a baseline date. Just two weeks ago, Sulpizio used a slide in which W-CDMA was shown as being commercialized in '03. The recent statement was the first time I have heard anyone from Qualcomm using the date '05. Just my memory of the statements....but, if they are correct, the recent statement IS a change in the schedule, and thus big news. Slacker

To: Randall Knight who wrote (7750)	2/24/2001 2:18:07 PM
From: straight life	Respond to of 196952

"However, by Monday, even those with their heads up the collective butt will understand that this is extremely positive for QCOM." IJ's FT interview caused a firestorm- mostly in Q's stock price- because the further delayed W-CDMA becomes, the further off royalties are. It's extremely negative for Q. Unless a European service provider jumps ship, breaks ranks, and goes CDMA2000. Then I'll agree with you. But I think that's unlikely. Don't misunderstand: I really hope you're right. But until the actual event occurs, it's only a push-out of revenues to which IJ has alerted the investing community. So, of course the stock tanked.