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To: Sea Otter who wrote (70454)	2/25/2001 9:12:14 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Sea Ottoer: OT . (For instance, a friend of mine just spent 700k for a scrubby little fixer-upper in Belmont, with a nice view of the freeway. As he put it "it can only go up"). I loved that little town. However, with everything worthwhile comes a price. The skunks from devils canyon visit at least once a week marking their territory (thats the smell your friend will wake up to once a week all over the town) and the place is overrun with spiders. They drop in everyday riding the wind on miniature parachutes spun themselves...LOL I am trying to figure out where your friend would be located with a view of the freeway, but it has been a few years, I had a nice view of the bay...<g> If your friend is up on a hill side he/she may get visits from deer and or mountain lions as well. An occasional territory dispute by raccoons could also be on the calendar. Tell your friend to be sure and attend the annual wine festival and the summer Sunday afternoon open air concerts. EDIT: If that blue eyed Russian still owns that take out pizza place in Belmont, Avanti Pizza on Ralston Ave, it is the very best pizza I have ever eaten...be sure and have them spread the garlic butter on the outer crust when you pick it up. Regards, LG

To: Sea Otter who wrote (70454)	2/25/2001 11:15:55 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The attitude of San Franciscans towards their bloated housing "values" reminds me of people's faith in the NAZ 18 months ago. A one way ride that goes on forever. I'm afraid they are in for a rude awakening.

To: Sea Otter who wrote (70454)	2/26/2001 12:28:33 AM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

Sea Otter ...OT ...re the Bay Area ... though I wasn't around at the time ... during previous recessions property prices in the Bay Area apparently held up. Additionally, a study just completed reported that the number of houses sold/bought in the Bay area for 12 months end of January 2001, was actually fewer than for the 12 months ended January 2000 (though both figures were below 4,500). To date demand has pretty much always outstriped supply ... something one of the experts questioned was hoping might improve with the slowing economy ... and therefore effect the price situation (with the general range for price increase given as 14 - 43% for that period). Historically, it seems that when times are bad, people just don't sell .... fwiw ... I know that during the Asian recession it was anticipated that the area would suffer price drops as the cargo ships were making laden journeys in just the one direction, empty on the way back ... but it never happened ... Also on a personal basis .. in our particular area house prices hadn't done much for the 3 years before we bought in 1996 ... so there is some uneveness. Obviously a protracted recession would hit everyone ... and who knows what this energy situ will result in. Personally ... I'd love for prices to drop ... but I'm not holding my breath. I should also add that I'm not sure what is meant by the 'Bay Area'. My wife laughs when she see's the weather people refer to some of the inland areas as the 'Bay Area' ... so I guess everythings open to interpretation. Good luck ! Stephen

To: Sea Otter who wrote (70454)	2/26/2001 3:20:13 AM
From: portage	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Sea Otter - I don't necessarily follow economic studies of the housing market closely, but from occasional articles in the paper and talking to people I have my own perspective. The demand/supply imbalance has really grown in the past several years, and supply just will not keep up with demand while the economy is good here. There are and will continue to be limits on new housing constructed - most areas outside of the city of SF itself do not want the type of density required to meet housing needs, and local control will ensure this. That will keep prices sky high for the time being. But just as in the early 90s, a bad economy can lead to a net outflow of residents from the state and area. From the peak of the prior frenzy in about 1991 or 92, I saw the values of many places go down 15-20% or more. Then they came back with a fury after about 1996-97 or so. Imagine a recession or large downturn with jobs lost, new jobs hard to come by, and a net outflow of residents. Some will be forced to sell their houses if they lose jobs or move away, and those in existing lower cost houses would be reluctant to sell them at decreasing values and buy into these $750,000 houses not knowing if their jobs are secure. That is the scenario I see that will put downward pressure on these places over $500,000 - because except for high paid executives, increasing stock options, and people trading up on their home equity gains, most people can't afford these places (something like 11% of San Franciscans can afford an average priced home there based on their household salaries). There was also a news piece tonight on church groups rallying for state subsidies for housing for lower-middle income people in SF who are moving out of SF to Richmond, Pittsburg, and other cheaper east bay cities because they can't afford rent in the City. One couple was making $70,000/year, but couldn't make rent with 3 kids - even in a lower cost part of the City. A state gov't rep. said large subsidies are unlikely, given the current energy crisis and its cost implications. I don't see a drop of 50-60% happening in housing values, but I definitely see a healthy pullback as soon as a net jobs outflow hits, which I expect in the next year or so. I would not be buying that scrubby fixer upper right now for that kind of price.