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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rillinois who wrote (12434)	2/27/2001 11:57:39 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Rillinois: RE: "sad that... he has gotten entangled in attempting to profit from a bear market CTR" This point is right on, especially since I remember him saying "the most important thing in a bear market is to preserve capital". However, hindsight is always 20/20. Last May, the CTR1 call was strictly or sophisticated investors and he called it using market internals almost to the day. I remember him making other successful calls of gift horse buy opportunities during recent years based on market internals. The first hint of things really going wrong was "the wrong road $84 stop loss" call. Maybe he thought that was a fluke. Then he successfully identified the top of CTR1 (first estimates for the end of August, and then refined to mid September). I do not understand how he could know in advance of the so far disastrous Oct 2000 CTR2 call that his market internal analysis would not work. I'm not making excuses for the guy, but on the other hand I think he's doing his best. But it's like Kirk said - nobody knows what the market will do in the future. And the NASDAQ and QQQ beasts have proven to be unmanageable. IMHO, just because he lost his stride recently does not mean he will not regain that stride. Can you do (or have you done) a better job anticipating market moves than Bob ? I know I can't no matter how much I try to apply quantum leap thinking to the markets and the economy. FWIW, P

To: Rillinois who wrote (12434)	2/27/2001 12:50:58 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Right now, I wonder how much this QQQ trade is effecting Bob's ability to objectively analyze the market. If MOABO is hit while Bob is still in this trade, will he be able to see it? I have thought about that myself. Remember on the radio he said he expected the NASDAQ to fall between 40 and 70% from its peak? Well, QQQ went from $120 to $48 or a fall of 60%. Another 10% to hit his low prediction would only be about 25% from current levels. If he still believes the 70% is the ultimate bottom and we know that the NASDAQ can move 15% in a day or two, it seems like DCA NOW might be a good way to catch MOABO... IF you still believe him. That last part is the hard one. Does he have any credibility left? He was so wrong on the CT "act immediately" call and his not discussing what went wrong... will probably cause many to ignore his MOABO call if he ever makes it. He was right that we would fall more than 40% in the NASDAQ... I sure didn't think we would fall this much this fast... I'd be interested to hear if he still thinks 70% off the peak is the ultimate bottom and why. The fact that he doesn't address issues when he is wrong and what he learned really bugs me. I think this is why he has lost so much credibility with the well educated crowd. Most others are impressed enough that he is on the radio and don't care. Hide your mistakes and get new subscribers from the radio show... Since they are probably the ones that buy the most newsletters, I don't hold my breath for him to change his ways after over 15 years of doing it. Best Regards Kirk