To: Earlie who wrote (72397 ) 2/27/2001 3:09:32 PM From: chic_hearne Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258 In my view, we are already well entrapped in a deflationary spiral. How the heck do we avoid it at this stage? Earlie, Simple, get the Naz, DOW, and Spoo's all at new highs. It's all a basic form of the Chaos theory. Ten Floridians in their 60's are getting set for a cushy retirement. They've been conservative, but not to the point they avoided the market. In the bull run they did 10-25% a year and found themselves able to retire early and live more lavishly than they ever dreamed. But last year each lost 10-20% of their funds, which hasn't happened in a long time. They're scared, not sure if the economy is entering a recession or what. So all ten decide not to replace that Lincoln Continental with brand new Cadilac, it can wait a few years. In this self full filling prophecy view of the economy, one auto worker in Detroit is the casualty, he loses his job. He's got a family and had a good job, $60K a year. Since the whole economy is slowing, he can't find anything better and goes to the government coffers. They take care of him. But the downside for the government is this surplus we're counting on is gone. So the democrats lose and they don't get to create more "programs" which provide yet more jobs using my and your tax money. This auto worker isn't alone. 75K here, 26K there, well you get the point. In turn, these tech gadget companies are finding out that there's massive overcapacity [or call it lack of demand]. So to survive, price wars start. This will lead to declining revenue and profits. How low do these stocks go? Who the fuck knows. But this is sure, when revenue growth slows, profit growth goes stagnant or negative, 20 times revenue ain't a good price. Just because a stock has a kinky gogo name doesn't mean people will buy it. Eventually value starts to matter again, at which point stock prices plummet even farther as it becomes apparent that value is a myth in this market. This entire mess may have a few other minor causes, but IMHO the stock market bubble is the catalyst for what will happen and is happening.