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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (449)	2/27/2001 10:08:10 PM
From: JustTradeEm	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

Everyone who's talked about communications has said "weak first half; stronger second half." Did we not believe what we were told? Pat, most of what I've read has been weak first half, can't see any further. Also, as far as believing, what we're told now is not what we were told as recently as weeks ago. So, whom is one to believe ?? JB

To: pat mudge who wrote (449)	2/28/2001 3:43:14 AM
From: bob zagorin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

conf. call notes from avnx guidance update today. not my notes but i listened to call and they are fairly accurate. another example of a call that was pretty positve but has been reported everywhere as completely negative. "...There is a transition going on from legacy products (PowerFilter) to next-gen products (PowerMux, PowerExchanger; PowerShaper; PowerExpressMetro). The first 2 are expected to go to 70% of revenues next quarter (March) PowerShaper revs will come on in June quarter; PowerExpressMetro then or March quarter. Now shipping next-gen products to 3 customers. Adding Alcatel as a 10% customer; been working with them only 6 months. Fujitsu gaining traction all over with its systems, to tremendous reviews. Large backlog in Europe and Japan so Avanex's revs will be 50% (from international) next quarter instead of 20%. In an otherwise non-promotional CC, CEO Alessandrini called Avanex the only company in the industry (its subsystem component of optics, I assume) supplying such next-gen solutions for systems. WCOM has gone down in size as customer as others have increased, but not enough to offset legacy systems slowdown and Nortel and WCOM's inventory issues even with high channel count systems (this wasn't too clear but was the focus of many questioners). Nortel may temporarily be a little less than a 10% customer but should rebound. Its slowdown anticipated in last quarter's guidance, CEO seemed to say (leaving WCOM more of the explanation?). WCOM was ~90% customer in 3/00, so decline as other customer sales have grown is good. I think I heard WCOM put at 30%. Very pleased with Fujitsu relationship. Noted that Avanex received Fujitsu's distinguished partner award (see recent PR), one of 2 out of 2000 suppliers to do so and only non-Japanese. Notable for having worked with Fujitsu only 2 years. Color of opportunity in Japan and Europe is GREEN, as in money, per CEO. Sounds as though decline in North American share of company's revs is priced in, but of course that's up to WCOM, Nortel, et al. Mix of products weighted at least 70/30 in favor of metro vs. long haul. First quarter of year is often slow while oncoming ones usually better. $200MM revs calendar '01; .20-.21 earnings for that year. June quarter expected to yield 10% growth; .04 earnings. March quarther $41MM revs; .02-.03 earnings. Gross margins 46.5% and improving over year..."