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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (48736)	3/9/2001 3:04:19 PM
From: moufassa7	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

I think NAZ will close below 2K today. That would make headlines throughout the world. Many mutual fund holders, [401k etc.]. will through in the towel on monday, causing capitulation bottom on tuesday. Just my opinion. I'm talking my position since I'm short QQQ.

To: Rock_nj who wrote (48736)	3/9/2001 3:47:56 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Just my point. Last rally day everyone was realizing they should have bought the last time there was a sell-off and vice versa. True it's hard to get bottoms and tops but unless you think we're going lower from here with 90% of techs having already warned and a rate cut coming up you're best off buying into the negativity and of course selling those big rally days. The reason it's so hard is these drops bring gloom and pessimism and rallies bring hope and greed. So just be contrarian. Right? Now for an example, EMC just dropped nine points since rally day. Buy here or wait until the next rally?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (48736)	3/9/2001 4:07:32 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

it's not like we're heading for another Great Depression There are many out there that would have you believe that we were. The sad part is that there were indications that we could pull out of all of this without a recession. Recent economic news has shown that the economy is still quite strong. But if the markets continue to tumble as they are, they could still trigger a recession. . . .a self-fulfilled prophecy. And where is Grinchspan? Rande Is

To: Rock_nj who wrote (48736)	3/9/2001 8:11:49 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rock nj: The reason people are not "buying on the major dip" is because they did this for most of 2000 and lost a lot of money doing so. If you guess the bottom incorrectly and it then declines 20% from your entry point, you then have to see it appreciate 25% to return to your entry point. Also, for every 10% the NASDAQ declines, the high-profile NASDAQ stocks lose 20-30%, particularly the ones still sporting high PE ratios (JNPR, BRCD, CIEN, MERQ, NTAP, etc.). It is highly unlikely that the NASDAQ will run away from us on the upside. The NASDAQ will take the better part of a year to recover and for companies to unwind all of their excess inventory. The January rate cuts won't even affect the market until August or September. One of several painful lessons I learned last year is that individual stocks do not swim successfully upstream against the deluge of a NASDAQ bear market. Regardless of their PE's and how cheap you think they are, they will go lower if the NASDAQ goes lower. I have "listened to the market" this year and have not forced anything; it has saved me from further devastating losses. When every major NASDAQ CEO is telling you that they are not selling their products and have no clue as to when orders will pick up, listen to what they are saying. I did, and I sold all of my tech stocks at the end of January. They will let you know when it is time to buy their companies again.