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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Square_Dealings who wrote (71719)3/11/2001 7:41:19 AM
From: ChrisJP  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Michael, Could you please provide a link or a source for your margin debt statistic ? Could you please provide a link or a source that shows margin debt per month fo the last 12 - 16 months ? Thanks.

It's not that I don't believe you .... its just that I find it hard to believe the public, the average investor, is that stupid. Or has more money in stocks than they did in March 2000.

You see, that statistic flies in the face of 2 obvious facts.

1. The NASDAQ is down 60%

2. There are far fewer stocks elligible for margin. They are all under $5 !

So I'd like to see the numbers. Maybe the statistic is "amount of margin debt as a percentage of stock holdings" or something like that.

Regards,
Chris



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (71719)3/11/2001 7:43:16 AM
From: ChrisJP  Respond to of 99985
 
Michael, is it possible the margin debt is related to the amount of short positions ?

Maybe its short interest that's at an all time high. Maybe they will have to cover one of these days.

Chris



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (71719)3/11/2001 8:18:30 AM
From: sunshadow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Michael you stated >"Margin debt increased to an all-time high for the week ending March 2" > Is this a quote or something you penned... It just ain't so...

As far as I know the record is last March and still stands>

"Margin debt is still historically high, but it's down significantly from its peak of $278 billion, which was reached in March 2000."

"... margin debt went way down; it fell considerably in December, I think about 20%. I think that's the sixth-biggest decline in 35 years in margin debt. Margin debt was at least (sic) $280 billion last spring and it's at about $190 billion now. That $190 billion is where it roughly was before the spike in the Dow and the Nasdaq last year. So a lot of excess is out of the market; you just have a lot of nervousness and anxiety. "

Since January was a little lower than December and probably February somewhat lower than January, margin debt is approx 100 billion less than a year ago...