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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (1473)	3/13/2001 10:20:43 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

For anyone who doesn't get a paper copy of the WSJ, some good reasons for standing aside: public.wsj.com

To: jim_p who wrote (1473)	3/13/2001 2:05:12 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Cramer - Semi's still not cheap thestreet.com Regardless of what you think about him I think he's dead right on this issue and until the semi's find a bottom there's NO hope imho for techs as a whole. Future earnings still in question, not cheap historically, and the cycle (economic) can feed on itself in both directions. When companies started warning in sept that was just from the excess capacity/debt bought by all the telecoms. We still have yet to see the effects that the Nasdaq falling 62% in one year will bring nor the effect of both the world's #1 and #2 economies cooling at the same time. AMAT's bottom should be found in the $25-30 range given past cycles and their earnings outlook for this year. Given the excess inventory in Asia and the fact the Intel has yet to guide down their Cap ex budget (don't worry it'll happen), earnings of $1.56 for 2001 and $1.89 for 2002 seem too optimitic. Then apply a PE of 15-20 for past bottoms and you get $25-30 imho. Even $20 would not surprise me in the least given how much earnings have been guided down recently. Look at the trend in earning's revisions the last 90 days and ask yourself if things are really going to bounce back that fast in 2002. biz.yahoo.com

To: jim_p who wrote (1473)	3/13/2001 3:21:28 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

SSTI's earnings estimates slashed dramatically (a SEMI). Holding up pretty good though. Still to go from $1.30 to .30 for 2001 estimates is pretty sobering. Sales from 600 mil to 300 mil. biz.yahoo.com Current and trailing PE's on the semi's are pretty much meaningless until a bottom is found in PC/Cell phone markets. Based on current sales estimates SSTI could come down to $3 as a low pt if they start showing neg earnings (based upon a Price/Sales ratio of 1. Tradeable rallies? Yes at times. Are we near the ultimate bottom? Not even close. FWIW, I'll probably unload most if not all of the techs I bought at 3pm before the close. Fed cut could come at any time, but I'd rather preserve capital at this stage in the bear.