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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/14/2001 11:19:16 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, a chart I call 'On the road again' ottographs.com Or, bounce em baby, there's plenty of time to fall later. 200 period moving averages on chart only because others look at them. In the SPX case, others are probably increasingly concerned. Interestingly, the SPX upper trading range measures exactly (within reason) the move down to lows of 1998. May not get there all one move, but assuming it continues to move down now or later, I think quickly traders will just pull the plug because its the easiest thing to do.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/14/2001 11:28:43 PM
From: Jumper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

don't believe in them - V bottoms will get ya' :0

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/14/2001 11:57:24 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Ever see a market go straight up?.....Japan 500+ pts. virtually without stop.....of course, government has NOTHING to do with it....no manipulation there...no sirree Bob... Its the "man on the street" in Japan, who, after keeping his dough in his home-safe for the last 10 years said...."what the heck, these stocks look like BARGAINS" and marched down to his local Sumitomo branch, and.....gg

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/15/2001 1:47:48 AM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Japan did a V turn ... Europe continues to sell ...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/15/2001 9:14:35 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

=DJ Japan's Troubles Are One Piece In Global Banking Jigsaw 14 Mar 19:40 By John Parry Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Japan's troubled banks were at the epicenter of global equity and bond markets gyrations Wednesday. But Japanese financial institutions may turn out to be just the first in line to get hurt. "In general, the feeling was today that globally banks had some risk associated with them," said Gemma Wright, director of market strategy at Barclays Capital in New York Wednesday. The catalyst for this sudden turn in sentiment, Wright said, was ratings agency Fitch's announcement it was placing several Japanese banks on negative credit watch. That was blamed for a big market-wide sell-off in U.S. stocks which led to a 3.1% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a concurrent slide in European equities. But it was bank stocks which fared worst: Citigroup Inc. (C) lost 7.2%; Bank of America Corp. (BAC) shed 4.6%; Deutsche Bank AG (G.DBK) fell 5.3%; HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) was down 5.0% and ABN Amro Holdings NV's (ABN) U.S.-based ADR shares dropped 4.3%. At first glance, Japan's situation is unique. After struggling for a decade with an unshakable bad loan burden, the latest slide in the Nikkei stock index to 16-year lows is expected to severely undermine the quality of many banks' balance sheets for the March 31 fiscal year-end. And new accounting rules that require Japan's banks to mark to market their equity holdings could weigh on future earnings. Yet in other respects, the worsening state of banks in the world's second biggest economy is a symptom of the global economic downturn that's putting pressure on banks worldwide. "Japan is the weak link," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer in New York. "The next leg... is that U.S. financial institutions are also vulnerable to a global downturn," he said. More Global Risks On The Horizon And the risks are rising for global banks, many analysts say. "Clearly there will be more problems this year, because the U.S. and global economy will be shakier," said Al Sanborn, president and chief executive officer of the U.S.-based Risk Management Association. Sanborn expects to see "more of an earnings problem, than a systemic problem for North American banks through 2001," with a rise in non-performing loans and additional charge-offs, while he notes that the rate of defaults on high yield bonds in the U.S. is at high levels. This bitter brew of lower earnings, higher default rates by borrowers and rising non-performing loans in different parts of the world is creating a more hostile business environment for banks. "That Japanese banks (pose) a systemic problem...is not news at all," said Vincent Truglia, managing director and co-head of the sovereign risk unit at Moody's Investor Services in New York. What's new, he said, is the combination of simultaneous stresses on different parts of the global banking system at the same time. "Finally, markets are focusing on (the Japanese banks) because there is a concentration of weaknesses in many markets," Truglia said. "Everyone is looking around for what are the weak links in the system." Goldman Sachs highlighted these risks Wednesday when it downgraded its earnings estimates for some of Europe's biggest banks, cutting its forecasts for Dresdner AG (G.DRS), Commerzbank AG (G.CBK) and Deutsche Bank. These downward revisions, set against the backdrop of Japan's woes, fueled some "fears of a global systemic meltdown," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed income trading at Seattle-based brokerage D.A. Davidson. It's Not 1998 To be sure, the risk of widespread systemic financial risk, or contagion, seems lower than existed before the global financial crisis in 1998. At that time, hedge funds and banks'proprietary trading desks had built up an unsustainably high level of leveraged positions in risky assets that left them exposed to a web of interconnected counterparty exposures. Analysts say much of that excessive leverage has since been unwound. And many U.S. banking analysts were quick to point out Wednesday that as a proportion of their total assets, U.S. banks' exposure to Japan is very small. Citigroup has the biggest presence in the country, but only 1.4% of its assets are in Japan. And if the global banks were really panicked about Japanese banks Wednesday, it didn't show up in the eurodollar market, where the so-called Japan premium that arose in the midst of the 1998 crisis failed to reemerge. Three-month borrowing rates for Japanese banks in the interbank market were up by two or three basis points on the day, according to eurodollar brokers, but that was well short of the 50-basis-point premium charged to shaky Japanese counterparties at the height of the 1998 crisis. Still, at least one prominent U.S.-based economist who tracks Japan expressed concern Wednesday about the possible ripple effects. "U.S. banks and European banks have major trading relationships" with Japanese banks, "and there are (also) potential disruptions to derivatives markets, which are hard to quantify," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, NY in a conference call Wednesday. Weinberg sees a 90% probability of at least one Japanese bank being declared officially insolvent after the March 31 year-end. And Moody's Investor Services Japan banking analyst Rieko McCarthy warned Wednesday that both Daiwa Bank (J.DWB) and Chuo Mitsui Bank remain close to technical insolvency and that these two banks are particularly vulnerable to falling equity prices. -By John Parry; Dow Jones Newswires; john.parry@dowjones.com; 201-938-2096 (END) DOW JONES NEWS 03-14-01 07:40 PM

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/15/2001 11:42:16 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, Kitco shows incorrect lease rates. Is this site lbma.org.uk accurate? How to interpret numbers? Thanx - ild

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (80694)	3/15/2001 12:54:10 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

I am somehow not convinced that the move for gold stocks is over for this go round. Everybody was looking for panic subscription to the BOE auction. The auction is so visible, if you are short and need to cover a lot, would you show it in the B/C ratio at BoE auction. Heck no! I think there will be one helluva scare for the metal on the down side followed by a stupendous rally in about 3-6 weeks! Then again, WTFDIK?