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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (2408)	3/16/2001 8:03:20 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Medroogies, Please understand that I appreciate your spirited defense of Oracle and NewEc. This discussion is useful, and your participation should be appreciated by all on this thread. Stay. You play two important roles: (a) Challenge to our basic assumptions to keep us from becoming complacent (b) Mining bird contra-indicator I have a general description of the folks populating this thread ... Message 15518593 and I am sure those here who do not feel this way will tell me so in polite terms. I find your defense of why we will not lose money spirited, and I sincerely hope you are right, but unlike you, I cannot afford to be wrong, and so I must be more cautious, and follow my own rules ... Message 15513633 <<1. That is a misinterpretation of LE's activities.>> He sold, where as he did not before, not on this scale. A spin can be put on any situation, unless one only is given 5 seconds to do summation. <<2. ... You said we all have the same information, but some choose to ignore it. As for the quotes you put up. How smart are any of those people? I don't know. I love Warren Buffet, but his silver venture didn't really do what he thought it would, did it? Plus, his record during the bull was hardly up to par. Abby Joseph Cohen has said to increase equity positions, and she's been as prescient recently as most people.>> You are pitting Abby against Grossman and Buffet? No, of course not. Buffet's silver venture cost him a few decimal places of loss, and his NAV will soon show a better annual return than most if not all NewEc tycoons. <<Hayami is a blustering blowhard who is constrained by a corrupt political system, while Greenspan has managed this market and economy quite effectively. Read what you want into either one's comments.>> I read "Jay, be cautious" <<3. Well, if you're not so good with your short term calls, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief, right? I agree that market conditions currently would best value ORCL at $10.>> That settles the short term portion of our original discussion started on the ORCL thread. <<4. It will happen. Depends on the bull. I would like to see a depend-a-bull....sort've like the 1984-1995 bull market. The bull from 1995 on was a scary one that was consistently hard to figure out. But that could occur too. I just don't think it will.>> Not sure what you mean, but I understand you have reiterated a call for the bulls return by January. Should that begin to look even possible, I will consider my actions in November. Chugs, Jay

To: MeDroogies who wrote (2408)	3/17/2001 4:28:36 AM
From: Bill/WA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

MD, holding no positions or agendas in this discussion - re:<<People in his position (check all companies, CEOs and Presidents) are given one open opportunity a year to sell large chunks of their holdings.>> actually, the SEC limits the sell PER quarter of these individuals and their holdings (re: examine the history of Mickey Dell's selling per quarter). in such a case, if my company had lost 50% of its value and I KNEW that that the future looked bleak enough for another 40% drop by the next quarter, I would indeed max out my quarterly sell limit before the end of the upcoming quarterly reporting period. Regards Bill/WA

To: MeDroogies who wrote (2408)	3/19/2001 7:57:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Responding to your ... Message 15528145 Hi Medroogies, No arguments with the thought process you described. Each of us, implicitly or explicitly, went through this process. The conclusion reached via the process is only as good as the inputs considered in the process. <<1. what is your time frame?>> I want to have a rising NAV, each and every calendar year. <<2. what do you hope to achieve?>> I want to raise NAV on absolute and relative basis, vs the “average”, enjoy it as I go, and not to simply leave a rich widow. <<3. what sector do you believe has the most opportunity for growth over your time frame to achieve your goals?>> The following asset classes will do relatively better in 2001 than Oracle: cash, near cash, short put on precious metal stocks at times, opportunistic scalping on whatever extreme movement available in markets. <<That may mean buy ORCL. It may mean hold. It may mean sell.>> I only got 100 shares for subscription to annual report. <<… in all likelihood, over time, if you have good knowledge and good instincts, you'll come out ahead.>> So far, I am so good, on absolute and relative basis. <<Dumb luck can take a person a long way.>> Very true. <<How many times have you heard the (true) stories of widowed Depression era women who, upon their death, left their families or a charity vast sums of previously unknown value? These are people who simply purchased stock and let it sit.>> Not enough times to adopt this LTB&H as gospel for strategy going forward with most tech shares, as opposed to Coca Cola, drugs, metals, basic industries, etc. The probability is simply not with us, given “reversion to the mean”, diminishing or lack of free-cash flow, valuation, high-speed obsolescence, shortened product and company life cycles, etc. The game, and yes, it is and should remain a game, is to firstly not lose, and then win. The strategy must account for the very real possibility that each f us is wrong, and not be seduced by the belief that we are the lucky few to be right. <<Don't buy and don't hold ... That leaves Sell.>> It also leaves “have no meaning position, waiting to see what happens”. <<Assuming that is the only option - what you're implying is a guaranteed meltdown.>> I am not saying a meltdown is guaranteed, only more likely than before, and the risks are high enough that any bullish tendencies must be tempered with a conviction that the strategy must allow for each of us to be wrong. The one-way bet days of 1990s are over and done with. <<If you actually convince enough people to sell, then the very thing that you'd hope to avoid (crash) becomes a guaranteed vicious cycle.>> I advise folks to be careful, and only that. If I were holding lots of tech in % allocation terms caused by me having been on a long vacation without access to communications made possible by tech, I would consider lightening up on each upswing, as I would be concerned knowing what bear markets, debt, and mood can do. I have seen too many bear markets, crisis, and mania. I have survived all of them, getting wealthier each and every time, by moving rapidly, decisively, and not by standing still to see what was happening to those around me. <<I think the point of the article is that it is currently an uncertain period in many respects and that one should tread carefully.>> Yup, agree, and same for the rest of your observations. We can all find our own respective panic point by setting the tech share quotes at 50% of current market on our MS Money portfolio tracker, and see how we feel. This is what can still happen. Chugs, Jay

To: MeDroogies who wrote (2408)	3/20/2001 9:37:23 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello MeDroogies, This is a follow-up to your visit here ... thanks for the disclosure ... and hope not too many folks misunderstood your recommendations. Chugs, Jay Message 15536459

To: MeDroogies who wrote (2408)	3/22/2001 4:49:19 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi MeDroogies, This is a response to your post ... Message 15540330 <<disclosure … There is no context at all in my telling you that I sold ORCL at a higher price and still hold 200 shares.>> Through our recent discussion, we can safely inform the thread of the following: (a) Bill Gross recently said there is no compelling value in corporate bond market; (b) Warren Buffet recent said there is no compelling value in the stock market, and none in his stock portfolio; (c) Larry Ellison recent said, not in so many words, “Sell!”; (d) FED governor recently said “go buy an SUV”; (e) Green$pan said he will cut rates if he has to. Hayami said the same thing; (f) Markets say “Down”, regardless of FED rate cuts or JOB rate cuts; (g) Medroogies sold ORCL except for 200 shares, equivalent to one mass-market fancy watch; (h) Medroogies says ORCL is either a hold or a buy or a sell, due to fundamentals of the software industry and the specifics of Oracle, in the context that the macro environment will be stabilized by the US Central Bank; (i) MeDroogies exposure to tech is not known to the thread but if disclosed will provide no context; and (j) Jay says sell on any strength, run and hide, in cash, near cash, precious metal mining, physical precious metals, short Yen, long platinum watch. Jay has minimum exposure to equity, and minimum exposure to tech. I believe I have succinctly summarized our respective recommendations, each within the broader context of our respective situation and of the broader economy. <<Interest rates … interpreted as a strong positive action.>> I agree that Greenspan’s rate policy is bullish for equity, but I do not believe the policy alone, or in combination with tax cut, will substantially help the equity market in the near term or for folks buying and holding, especially if done on leveraged basis. <<The serious question you ask is almost humorous … I make my decisions based on historical precedent … Certainly, if my industry suddenly tanks again, in a surprising manner, I would alter my viewpoint then. Right now, there is no solid evidence that I should.>> Altering your viewpoint at that particular moment may not be a good idea if you are going into the possibly dangerous period fully loaded with shares. This is where a bit of allocation disclosure will help folks reading your posted views, giving them some additional context to fully understand what may or may not be right for them. Please understand that I am not inviting you to disclose your overall allocation. I am only making the point that the advice being dispensed on these stock specific bullish threads are totally out of context. But you know that. <<… Things went SO WRONG and SO FAST in media … media has a few interesting quirks that allow us to get a bead on where spending will be 6 months out … However, longer term spending was actually rising… With the cuts in interest rates, much of the advertising revenue that would be likely pulled to cover debt financing or cover profits (which is what they do with the cash) won't be pulled now. That is a bullish indicator.>> Classical marketing management calls for increased brand advertising by financially stronger companies during economic downturns. What you see in your company may simply be due to companies doing the classical move. Not sure, but it is obviously dangerous to base investment decisions on such a single isolated data point amongst all other more troubling data points, as I am sure you are not. <<Negativity is something that people don't like to engage in, it's very tiring.>> Yes, but if the shoe fits, it's ugly, at least for now. <<As for the schadenfreude ...>> Not an issue here as we are all trying to determine the right steps to a wealthier future, taking proper account of context, including stamina, time horizon, macro economy and company specific data points. Chugs, Jay