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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark The Trader who wrote (50116)	3/16/2001 10:10:43 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

yes, 2.50 seems too low, although not for the reason you state. i still think $6 is an appropriate level for entry. your "many funds own this so it can't go down" argument is out of step. the past year should've taught you that all the king's horses and all the king's men can't stop fundamentals from mattering. besides, if the "vested interests" argument were true, then at this point it is shutting the barn door after the horse has left: after all, cisco has already lost more than 75% of its value--an amount greater than the current market cap of the most valuable co. (GE).

To: Mark The Trader who wrote (50116)	3/16/2001 10:20:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Hi Mark, Being a day trader who does both long and short, you are obviously not in denial but realistically trying to scalp a head here and there. While being busy doing the hunt, consider that CSCO may go to $2.5 (I think $6 is obviously a more likely number only because it is higher) IF ... Leverage and unemployment driven redemption happens to the equity funds, forcing them to sell anything remotely liquid at bid-less prices. This possibility is more possible with each passing floor. Only a matter of psychology. <<Are you also assuming that we are on the verge of the next great depression??>> Why is this not a possibility with a higher probability than, say 4 weeks ago? Have the central bankers gotten that smarter? Do they even have the tools available to do their job? <<Is technology just going to stop are we going to regress?>> Clearly not, but this has little to do with valuation. Tech shares had sold for book value before, and can easily do so again. Why can the mirror image of an upside mania occur when it unwinds? Just because we have not seen it before live and up close? Message 15499309 Chugs, Jay

To: Mark The Trader who wrote (50116)	3/17/2001 6:43:39 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Yeah, I am educated, and I think the fact that I have a degree in History and Economics, work on the buy side, and have studied finance, should give a little more weight to what I say. I also think the fact that I have been here from the top, screaming why CSCO should fall, should lend itself to further credibility. You, on the other hand, bring up some weird analogy about how index funds will save CSCO without looking that the continuing deteriorating fundamentals in the telco industry and its implication on CSCO. There's a good article in Barrons about the 70's recession when terms like "replacement cost" were common terminology. You might do well to look it up again.