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To: AllansAlias who wrote (93793)	4/13/2001 8:59:26 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

AA- Any thoughts appreciated (you or thread) To:L3_aka_L3 who wrote (5753) From: JRI Friday, Apr 13, 2001 8:56 AM Respond to of 5758 Any thoughts appreciated (all)... COMPX: I see a lot of congestion in the 1980-2000 area....also a gap at 2000-2025 (or so), and I calculated a 33% retrace move of the 1623 bottom (33% equalling the % retrace that occurred from 2261-2890 Jan. move from the Sept-Jan downleg)... Also, if A=C on this 5 wave up move, then C = (approx.) 150 pts......so 1870 (approx. bottom yesterday) + 150= 2020.... 1980 2000 2020 2025 2041 Any of those numbers appeal to you? Above that, we get back in the '90 COMPX Log channel...i would think that'll be a bear (pun intended) to break... Finally, if we do pullback Monday ("bear trap")...how much downside are you looking for? Does Max-Pain figure in (any way) to your ideas about end of week...also, any thoughts on 23rd turn date appreciated...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (93793)	4/13/2001 9:18:13 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Final question on thoughts (I promise)! Looking back at the November rally, and the January rally.... I looked at 7 top (former) "high-flyers" (BRCM, ITWO, CHKP, BEAS, SEBL, JNPR, CIEN) and the Soxx and BTK... I wanted to measure % moves from daily low to daily high.. For those 7 stocks mentioned, for November, the range was from 53% (JNPR) to 79% (CHKP), and for January, from 43% (JNPR) to 74% (CIEN).... Since the up move started Wednesday a week ago, the range is 63.25% (CIEN) to 95% (BEAS)... So, already, this move has equaled the moves in November and January on a % basis for the high-flyers.. The other interesting point was that, for the most part, at around 80 %, the moves seems to end (exception being BEAS move recently)....most of the moves were in the 60-70% range.....as said, we are already there (this go round) for all of the "high-flys" mentioned.... In November, Soxx moved around 36%, low-to-high....and in Jan. around 27%....so far, its been a 31% move (approx.) In November, BTK moved about 27%, low-to-high....and in January, around 35%.....this time around, approx. 25%.. ---------------------------------------------- Conclusions: Looks like this move should peter out soon, if indeed it is of the nature of the 2 previous corrective moves.....the Soxx could run maybe a little further, and the BTK too...but not much....The highflyers have already made an enormous move..... If we go much above the % moves (for the previous corrections), it would raise questions like: Are we correcting something bigger than the downmove from Jan.? Are, perhaps, 5 waves down now complete....and we are only in the A of a A-B-C correction (Sept.- March), etc... Any thoughts appreciated....(Question again: Wouldn't %'s be more valid than absolute numbers here?)

To: AllansAlias who wrote (93793)	4/13/2001 6:22:04 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I Was Just Wondering If I Should Continue To Hold My Rally Ravaged Puts Or Cut My Losses I had come to a similar premise concerning yesterdays probable direction as the one you had posted. So not with standing the fact that the extent of the rally and the fact that it did make me a little pale I held on to a number of April NDX and SPX puts which were, or very close to being in the money. By the time it became clear to me that a decline of the extent I had anticipated was not going to happen, most of the damage had been done. I still think that last week's rally was contrived, both with regard to duration and extent and was inconsistent with what I felt the pretty pictures suggested. Nevertheless we did cut through a number of resistance lines (now support) in the course of the week and I am trying to get a handle on the likely timing and extent of any down move. Yours thoughts and charts are appreciated as always.