Hi Merryfield from Softbank days, speculation alert ...
Message 17424569
HK.715 doubled last week.
home.boom.com.hk
... but do not forget these words from the days past:
Message 12186762
December 4th, 1999
Will probably commit a small bundle to New World Cyber (276) at anything under HK$ 2.40 for a few hours/days or weeks duration. HK stock trading is on slightly different rules at this stage ... buy, profit and run into the night, as the market is manipulated and directed by folks who are shy. Insider trading is against the law here, but syndicated manipulation seems common. Stock trading, along with horse racing, is a team sport. American investors beware as we have so much technology and know-how to transfer to the unwary.
Message 12242189
December 9th, 1999
I am terrified that our collective 1999 record may be difficult to match next year, and I feel we are in an Indiana Jones situation where the fire gate is coming down and Maui is on the other side.
Message 12355669
December 22nd, 1999
Excuse my random mutterings, as we are partying in the office at 1:15pm. Just released bonus packs to staff. I still remember quite vividly my champaign and caviar boat trip right before Thailand collapsed.
…
On the Yahoo discussion with Founder (418.HK), the stock has proven to be a good week (as opposed to day) trading vehicle.
There are simply money everywhere for the picking, and we are drunk with fantastic visions of Maui. The operative valuation out here appears to be US$ 5 million for a good idea, and projects are valued at $15 million for having three good ideas. Food processing portal. Textile portal. Hotel portal. Traditional Chinese Medicine Portal. Etc. Old intermediaries I know in energy projects are now pawning i-net ideas.
Cornfeld's (1960s scamster) street level window in HK (where he displayed a tree with money clipped to it - the money tree) on Duddell Street in Central now has a new logo inside "Web Bank". Cornfeld's motto tag line used to be "Do you truly want to be rich?"
This is tremendously enjoyable and funnier than "It's a mad mad mad world".
Today I received a querry on a i-net business plan. The guy asked "Jay, the writing style looks like yours on the B-plan; is this the deal you guys sold to _____". He was concerned that a business was being re-packaged and sold again. As I was suppose to vet projects for him, he thought one of my plans had found its way back to me. Turns out to be a competing idea in traditional chinese medicine, not as good, but looks similar.
Care to be exercised. Survivors will be the quick-footed.
While the emperor's palace was valued at an unsaleable fortune, there are still plenty of Hawaiian hotels boarded up. Conclusion, stay with the quality issues.
I am worried about a Bre-X type of situation in i-net (as if some one sneazes on the buffet table of Gold Mining) that ruins the fun for the rest of us.
Back to the party.
Message 12385690
December 26th, 1999
Hello Netconductor, the way the HK game is played is a syndicate will boost a stock to a pre-determined and desired level, to be followed by either rights issue or cash calls of other flavors. The best players are the property tycoons, why are all busy changing into their i-net gear. HK is not a 'long term' market, it is strictly a trading market. I have sold some of my Founder and New World Cyberbase. I thought I had missed PCCLF, and now I have, for this round.
Message 12386627
December 27th, 1999
Hi Jonas, I have Hutchison indirectly via the wife's account and have held through thick and thin as we in Hong Kong do not like to feel left out, whether on the way down or up. US senators seem to think Hutchison is a communist Chinese front company set to dominate the Panama canal. To me, the only places communist between the two shores of the Pacific Ocean is in California and North Korea. But I am off topic.
Betting on 9984 is a bet on Son. Betting on Hutchison/Cheung Kong is a bet on Li Ka Shing. Betting on PCCLF is on the younger Li.
I would not want to short Harcourt. I would not want to buy either. Now, I am of the opinion that in the i-net space, money makes might and makes right. Look at Chinadotcom, come up with a shlocky plan, get it funded, hire the big guns, authorize them to change the scholky plan, and watch the valuation go north.
Treat it as a game. With serious money, stay with quality. Play on the side with spare change.
Message 12393065
December 27th, 1999
PCCLF is a HK share trading under the symbol 1186. Pacific Century Cyber Works.
We in HK are quite humorous with names. New World Cyberbase. Sort of like "Pacific Millineum Mothersonic Biotronic Cookie.com" or "Mercedes Benz Supercharged 4WD 4WS Fuel Injected Turbo Diesel 24V iSLK".
Remember the "Money Tree" I spoke of earlier.
Message 12402354
December 28th, 1999
I have now only a few meaningful and unencumbered positions (9984, SNE, MSFT/VSIO, CHL, INTC, RTRSY, CMCSK, HSBC, MBK, a ML i-net fund that plays the IPOs and has large position in 9984 - and these constitute my 'investments' as opposed to 'speculation'), one encumbered but meaningful position in AMGN, one still meaningful speculation (Founder) and a bunch of meaningless subscriptions to annual reports (YHOO, SFE, AOL, EMC, CSCO, LU ...), plus a middling hedge in NEM longs and puts. Of the above, 9984 accounts for 45-50% of total value, depending on what time of day it is in Tokyo. Yup, I believe.
I feel like a person who had overendulged in sex; I have, as they say, shot my bullets, and now only got the thermonuclear bombs, which are not particularly or typically useful in trading battles.
My 'gamble' is my current high allocation to that burdensome and low yielding asset category called cash and near-cash.
What scares me is that I am actually considering going short, not as in buying put, but in selling naked calls and selling shares I do not own. Never did before, always a first time.
Message 12402641
December 28th, 1999
Oops, just got more bullets. Just bought bravely into Golden Power (603 in Hong Kong) as they resumed trading after 5 day suspension of trade due to PCCLF and Hikari Tsushin bought 51% of it to be used for holding company purpose (invested companies outside of Japan).
Not getting a lot of work done these days. Where are those Pachinko machines?
Message 12403144
December 28th, 1999
No rationale, logic, valuation. Just speculation in its purest and most daring form. A sand castle built on a deck of cards, supported by a shimmering mirage of riches that can be.
Just like Tricom (a/k/a PCCLF after Li's takeover), the big boys decide to buy a small listed company - in this case Golden Power, sell off it substantive but unnecessary innards (battery making), and then inject assets (in the form of convertible debt) and investments (nay, i-net projects, visions, mirages, and dreams) into the almost empty shell, operate the newly puffed up but already listed company. These 'backdoor' listings dispense with the inconvenience of waiting around for IPO opportunity, in case the liquidity train does not manage to cross the bridge of Credibility and crashes into the South Sea.
Message 12404275
December 29th, 1999
Conservatism, me, one who even dares to contemplate shorting this crazy market. Edwin-san, you are, however, correct in detecting my overall bearish bias and reluctant bullishness on my thermonuclear bombs.
January does not concern me much, March does. We all become technicians first, science fiction writers later, soothsayers next, then, finally, astrologers. February is a month to start shorting until we feel margin poor, and August is for going long until we feel cash poor.
Message 12414549
December 29th, 1999
Golden Power (603) power strokes to 13.5 noon time today, a reasonable 48% rise in 24 hours. Sold half, and buying 1049 (Celestial Securities) at 0.95 as it will be the first publicly traded brokerage w/ i-net trading of HK shares. The Boom.com and others are not public. With the US based experience, this is, so far, indeed like reading tomorrow's Wall Street Journal today. Son is right about his Time Machine, just on a much more glorious scale.
Richard Li of PCCLF is throwing a 20 million party with Whitney Houston and other megastars for the Millenium night. I guess the man has cause to celebrate. This is the 1920s all over again. 1925 or 1929?
Message 12414778
December 29th, 1999
Like I mentioned before, there is no need to investigate the share trading in HK. If it goes up like a rocket, it is being manipulated, being readied for a cash call. Hong Kong is a wonderful place where capitalism in its origin 1920s form co-exist with 60+% cellular phone penetration (kids included).
Macao is nice too. The Macao Club just sent me a flyer to sign up for free cruises all weekends during 2000, food included. The ship, complete with swimming pool and all, leaves HK for open sea and the gambling starts. As my wife and I do not gamble, we figure we will just watch the action and read a good book, maybe check out a few movies. Wife will accompany as there appears to be quite a few single girls on board.
Communist China is never so in danger as when they embraced these two tiny specs of islands. Imagine what an embrace of Taiwan can do!
Message 12423716
December 30th, 1999
It is very difficult to go wrong at 13 Amercan cents. CAAFF? Uhm, I must look more closely at these foreign shares traded on the US market. Round the clock trading is a competitive advantage not to be belittled.
Attached find news clipping from Bloomberg, following up my earlier post on hedge funds wading into technology. Not bad that Soros turned a year-on-year loss to a 30+% gain in 60 days.
We in Asia had a run-in with Soros and friends, and the ASian crisis had very little to do with non-transparency, cronyism, or lack of democracy. The storm was caused by high hard currency denominated leverage, speculation, and triggered by Soros and friends doing a hedge job on the over-valued (fixed to US$) currencies. Had you been an Indonesian billionaire, had all your assets in Indonesia, in local currency, you would have been worth no more than US$ 2 million (yes, two million) at the low point. Sort of a life style changing event in my judgement.
Hong Kong was lucky, in that we followed Malaysia's lead (turn off the light during a bar brawl and gang up on the foreigners) did not follow the Wall Street Journal rule book, defended ourselves, and taught Soros humility with a one day US$ 10 billion government intervention, and then the Russians immediately followed up with a lesson on prudence on foreign lending, and the Japanese then reminded Soros who the capital supplier to the US was. Longterm Capital nearly folds, Greenspan and Ruben panics, turns on the liquidity tap, and the rest of the story we know.
Watch out below when these famous people and the 'IPO lock-up period' expired i-net insiders starts selling, and worse, starts shorting. Asia, more particularly Japan, is a good place to ride out the storm due to its
(1) 10+ year recession/depression,
(2) high savings,
(3) megascale government sponsored liquidity,
(4) early i-net days, and
(5) low stock ownership rate.
When and if you want to run, run silently and quickly, into the night side of the world when NYSE is open, run to the CSCO, ORCL, EMC, MSFT, QCOM(?) and other shares with high international i-net potential and Japanese/Asian shares such as SFTBF, Sony, China Telecom ...
My guess for 2000 is that Soros will be testifying in the Senate in 2001.
Message 12424137
December 30th, 1999
Mact, Good morning, additional observations ... as today is an impromtu declared public holiday called last minute by the concerned HK government, to close the banks and watch what happens with Australia tomorrow morning, and it is also Starbuck ice coffee time. If the lights go out in Sydney, a historic buying opportunity will have presented itself.
Yesterday, the taxi driver did ask for and accept stock tips from me. Earlier, my 70 year old mom visiting now tried to understand from me what EMC's business was (she does e-mail and surf for info), and my father in-law (who does not use i-net) had bought and mis-sold MYPT, in at 13, out at 25, leaving US$ 500k+ on the table, and he still could not tell me what the company does, nor could he tell me what the closing price is. My office administrator is following my trades, my broker is passing around my trades as his own ideas (ever since my initial lucky (nay, studied) 9984 buy in November of 1998). My neighbor and I talked Golden Power while putting out the garbage, speculated on a joint purchase of the apartment on the third floor of our 3 storey building, and discussed his Malaysian friends wanting to place money with him to speculate with in Hong Kong (free capital movement is so very important to the continued prosperity of our little island). And finally, other asset classes are being talked about in the press as follow-ons to i-net frenzy (recent spat of biotech buzz, etc), and this is inevitable as the maniac fever runs its course, affecting other assets.
I am on page 69 of "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor (purchaseable at Amazon, of course), and at the bottom of the page, from the year 1720, by an anonymous pamphleteer, in great clarity ...
"The additional rise of this stock above the true capital will be only imaginary; one added to one, by any rules of vulgar arithmetic, will never make three and half; consequently, all the fictitious value must be a loss to some persons or other, first or last. The only way to prevent it to oneself must be to sell out betimes, and so let the Devil take the hindmost."
The earlier part of the book described speculative events since the Roman empire days, and I observe that if one were to replace the nouns (i-net for gold, biotech for tulips, diving engines for cellular phone, treasure in South Seas for WTO in China, etc) and change the dates (1999 for 1720, etc), the resulting words can be published in Wall Street Journal and Barrons, with no loss of sense or education value.
I do (intellectually, at least) realize that 95% of i-net companies will no longer be around by half time, but I believe it would be criminal (not to mention irresponsible to imaginary offsprings) not to play this game out and gather assets for an eventual retreat to a quiet sunny cove in Maui. Our education, experiences, and sense of historic and social relevance and duty dictate that we must contribute to the progress of i-net globalism, and as in all progressive moves, someone must eventually pay a price, even as we ourselves edge towards the emergency fire exit.
We are living in historically significant time and feeling invincible and vigorous. I felt this way once before, during 1990-1991 in Manila/Borocay, immediated after the 1989 TianAnmen event having diminished my consulting business in China, renovating (nay, flipping, in English, or stir frying in Chinese) buildings. My two Aussie partners and I started with risk capital of US$ 100k, got our NAV to US$ 7 million, and back down to US$ 100k, all in 18 short months. I learnt that bankers do use four letter words, and that "we successfully crossed the rickety suspension bridge over the deep gorge, after making proper judgement of the risks involved; and a hungry mountain lion stepped out from the rocks ...".
We got sunk in Manila by 45% per annum interest rate when Saddam invaded Kuwait, causing oil price to go up, toureism to dry up and 500k filipinos to return to Manila from the Middle East, all looking for jobs.
Message 12436491
January 1st 2000
Hans, I was at a party yesterday (Jan 1st) with some folks with whom I get together as one group once/twice per year. We were together at a depressing New Years party January 1st 1998. The humor was black. Many were boarding schooled, Ivy League credentialled, trophy wifed/girlfriended, money managers and consultants, and we were speculating on the end of the world as we know it. Stock exchange seats were put up for sale, market making stopped, car purchases delayed/scaled back or cancelled. We zigged and zagged furiously between the markets, switching from loss making stocks to bleeding emerging market bonds, switching from shaky countries to just rickety countries. And, now, behold, the sun shines, the waves becalmed, foliage of islands in sight, and the half naked girls are paddling towards us. We are all laughing and fully 50% are in activities related to dotdotcoms. The wives are happily talking about dotcoms instead of red chips, Kenzo instead of husbands' derailed careers.
Do I honastly think 9984 will be market capped at 700 billion? I think MSFT is undervalued and I have been accumulating via puts on Visio and MFST.
I want to put down my belief precisely: "Given that I think MFST is undervalued, I think 9984's frenzy value is much higher than MFST.
1. 9984 is domiciled in Japan where the stomach for equity had ten lean biblical years.
2. Japan has been building up a gigantic liquidity bubble unprecedented in history through depression enforced high savings rate, maniac export and zero percent interest rate.
3. Japanese people is more concensus based than many (I am trying to be polite here). They decide slowly, but when they do, step out of their way.
4. The nature of MSFT is to dominate operating and application environment. The nature of 9984 is to manufacture i-net companies, feed the global public market's hunger (say 90% failure rate, with 10% gems), and its business machinery puts Milken's bond empire to unsophisticated shame.
Imagine what MSFT would be market capped at if it moved its entire operation and legal domicile to Japan, and Bill Gate is friend of the Prime Minister; then value 9984 at 50% of the new MSFT value.
I stated to Edwin way back that I believe the management will get 9984 to Yen 100k, and the Japanese will get 9984 to Yen 800k. I also believe, as I stated recently, if we do not get to 800k this year, then we may not get there at all.
Message 12438115
January 2nd, 2000
Edwin and Malcolm, I am curious at times and, gad, look what I found ... message 7289 on Bre-x thread ... the party for that stock fell apart around message 7370. So, let us not get into an argument and concentrate on our basket(s) of eggs. If I am right, I do not have to argue, and if I am wrong, I can not afford to argue.
QUOTE
To: Lalit Jain who wrote (7289)
From: Graham Thorley Sunday, Mar 16, 1997 11:22 AM ET
Respond to Post # 7291 of 28196
Lalit you will not get silenced by me. While I may not agree with everything you have said your post is the the type of non gung ho factual message that is required on this thread just as I believe some of mine have in the past been.
Concerning the valuation you have stated my own belief is that this value (and let me state I agree that if the the 3 year forward clock was moved back to this point in time now your value range could be very close) will not occur for some of the following reasons.
1) the huge resource will never reach its full potential because almost if not all of any future increase in the resource has no hope of being mined in our lifetimes and its value will be primarily based on cash flow earnings plus a discounted value for earnings going forward. To give it the same multiple as other majors is not totally realistic unless at that time there is some diversity of sovereign risk by way of other mines in their holdings as well as growth from other properties in the works (the latter could well occur and then you would see a value accorded for it). Cosider Busang to be a vast tract of land sitting to the North of Toronto or other major city. Forcasts are for the land to be built up and developed as another major urban area in 20 - 40 years. The land when built on will be worth up to $10 Million an acre at its centre decreasing down as you move to the outskirts. This land at present is worth say $50-$100,000 an acre and even provides a financial return because it can be farmed, rented etc. This land will rise in value with inflation or time as use becomes closer. Gold is no different.
2)My own belief and this is shared by others is that the lofty multiples being enjoyed by Gold producers is going to come down possibly to low teens. The world is finding more and more gold and Busang is an example of this. Despite the fact that they have been saying for 10 years or more that we are using more than we are mining the price has trended down. Why because investors and central banks have been seling of to make up the difference. Just think what will happen to the price of gold when producers start pumping out more than their is demand for.
3)Indonesia is a high risk country and democracy is lacking there. Resource companies in this situation tend give up some of their premium because of the risk. I believe investors are going to have a nagging fear that the Indonesians are going to snatch another piece of the pie down the road.
Lalit your posts have offered substance and are a pleasure to read by me and I am sure many others because they stimulate thought and analysis of the situation. Drumbeat and some others were constantly bitching about Barrick and the news media and when you start using 4 or 5 names to accomplish this it gets disruptive. Freedom of speech is fine but only one voice per person please.
Graham
UNQUOTE
Message 12442393
January 2nd, 2000
Update on 603. Now I am like a critter caught in the headlights, recognizing substantial gains on Golden Power (603) for one day trade (in at 18, out at 23).
It is now 11:23am local time and I have only sold what 603 I bought today at open. Rolling part of proceeds into China Overseas Land (688) at HK$ 1.10/share, and awaiting rumored broadband announcement. Caveat Emptor.
No work is being done in the office at all. Danger, danger. All signs of mania present. Can not get through to HK Telecom 2288 (real time stock quote) line at all. Flying blind, but flying.
China Strategic (235) holds substantial PCCLF and sells at HK$ 0.45. The head of China Strategic is a master flipper when times are hot. I am not buying 235 as I draw the line somewhere. Red-chip plus Cyber-chip plus debt could prove too potent and toxic a mixture even for fast paced HK.
Message 12443500
January 3rd, 2000
OT: Last time I will talk about #688 on this thread. Bought first and then asked questions ...
#688 is supported by its property portfolio that will stop making losses in 2001 and will be announcing deals in broadband based on existing profit-making fibre assets and co-invested assets with Xinhua. Timing is a bit long still as packaging not decided as yet (could be 6 months, an eternity in i-net time). Speculation for adults only. I hope the US does not fall apart and let me trade out of all these baby dotcoms whole.
Relevant tracking site is ... 3 year chart indicate clearly the effects of the 1997 emerging market blowup
int.quamnet.com
Message 12452804
January 3rd, 2000
Thank you Linda, update, but this time literally final update ... liquidated all positions in Founder (418), Celestial (1049), and all of massive position established yesterday in China Overseas (688), and another 25% of Golden Power (603, now only 25% of original stake left). Taking home a modest Maui home due to 688, but probably left a few more on the table. It's OK, I measure myself in absolute numbers, not relative to the Dow Jones'. Like I said, in mania, a few massive but extremely short term bets.
Main motivation on a swooping sale (instead of staggered sales) is that I will be travelling to four locations within 9 days, starting today, and I can not be at the rudder.
Now I I got left in HK is HSBC, a smattering of Golden Power, and some Tracker Fund (index mutual fund established by HK Government from their anti-Soros intervention hoard).
Message 12452907
January 3rd, 2000
The problem, and a nice problem it is, is that as 9984 rises, I am running out of other stocks to sell to counterbalance 9984's effect on my allocation to equity. My maximum bullishness is not allowing me to watch allocation discipline going out the window. Now, the only thing left for me to do is to fasten the seat belt, close eyes, scream, as the 9984 roller coaster sets off for the peak.
Message 12453006
January 3rd, 2000
Oops, Michelda, I have to break my own rule of not allowing hotsy totsy HK shares to be held in my account when I am not at the rudder, hold my nose, and buy 1070 per your earlier post and hold until whenever. After a call from friend on an island 2 minutes ago, I rolled 688 proceeds to 1070 in its entirety, as the Maui house can use expansion, addition of a pool, and moved a bit closer to the beach.
You can not seriously be a chicken farmer.
Message 12453701
January 3rd, 2000
Jonas,
I know less than you do about the company, but let me try to do what Michelda does - I say HK$10 target by January 10th, and then I am out of there. Caveat Emptor as I have no clue of what I am doing, just that I am flying at 60,000 kilomenters per hour, 3 feet above ground, carrying oversized luggage, through the forest. Do not follow me on this one as I do not want the responsibility.
Message 12455169
January 4th, 2000
OT: Hello Swisstrader, 1070 is pure gamble for me, based on nothing more than the wish that some want to see the share price up to double digits, because it is then better than single digit. There may be a pot of platinum at the end of the telephone line.
Message 12467735
January 5th, 2000
Hi Edwin, ?head spin?? I had always thought equity moves to be like dancing, sometimes we are in tune with the beat and other times not. When we do make a mistake, it is more likely than not that we then proceed to make a series of mistakes. At times, I step to the side and try to pick up the beat again. No need to do the treadmill today, tired from exercising.
The HK market was ugly today, gapping down at open 1000 points out of 17000 points. Stocks gap down, markets rarely do. What happens when we wake up, and no one bids for our shares.
I sold my precious HSBC at HK$ 105, China Telecom (941, as opposed to CHL) at HK$ 47.5, my residual Golden Power at HK$ 16.5, and I (dumped) 1070 at HK$ 5.20. I do not mind, as my total gain from HK market since January 3rd still sums up to a small house.
I sold 10% of my Softbank at Yen 91k, and bought back same at Yen 84k, salvaging some cash from the overheated oven. Interesting exercise.
I must note that the market for 9984 was sticky today, and it took sometime for my market order to get done on the sell side, strange behavior for such a big liquid stock.
Depending on Nasdaq tonight, I may try this again tomorrow. However, if the trading limit is reverted back to Yen 5k, trading may simply shutdown, not enabling transaction as no clearing price between buyer and seller. I actually am not in favor of trading limits at all, as it is like locking a bunch of fire escapes in a dark crowded theater.
24 hour trading, with full complement of options, would seriously chip away at sleep time, and I am not sure it should be done from any place besides Hawaii. I may short CHL tonight at HK closing price should Nasdaq do a big tumble, and buy back equivalent number of HK?s 941 to cover the short the following trading session. |
