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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45862)	4/24/2001 8:26:03 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

If we drift down for another couple of days, and AMAT gets below 51, and NVLS gets below 48, I'll feel a whole lot more comfortable holding puts. If I were you, I wouldn't worry. Did anyone notice what CYMI said tonight: biz.yahoo.com . Our ongoing market analysis projects continued slowing in capacity related buys in deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. With fabs operating at a fraction of their capacity, we anticipate more announcements by chipmakers of further reductions or delays in their capital spending plans for 2001. Given current industry conditions, including lack of visibility, we are not forecasting beyond the current quarter.'' Jay

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45862)	4/24/2001 8:57:02 PM
From: kdavy	Respond to of 70976

ST trading: Jacob, I am rooting for you too. Believe me the stock will go below 45 and above 55, and we both will make money. You take the short side and I take the long side. There is plenty of room for both in this market. kdavy

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (45862)	4/25/2001 1:23:30 AM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "This is either an impressive headfake, or a breakout to the upside" Jacob, My vote is for the "impressive headfake" (surprise, surprise). I think a significant group of sidelined investors were so anxious for signs of a second half recovery that they jumped at the first serious hint of "good" news (Intel), and then went nuts just hours later when the Fed announced their rate cut. Wow, what timing. In addition to the position buying, I'm certain I wasn't the only one holding a short play who immediately covered in fear after taking that one-two punch. But what about those Intel comments?: "Our microprocessor business appears to have stabilized and we expect to see normal seasonal patterns going forward from our current business level." Yeah, but don't current business levels suck? (first quarter revenue of $6.7 billion, down 16 percent from the first quarter of 2000 and down 23 percent sequentially). And, it appears (IMO) that Dell and Compaq may not be quite as optimistic (if you can call it that) as Intel. While I suspect that in time, the Fed move will give us a needed boost, the current parade of layoffs and earnings warnings suggests to me that we are more likely to head back down for a retest. The rate cut rally is over and it's time for near term reality to take hold once again. FWIW, If we do follow through with a retest, I expect this is when I'll finally go long with AMAT and few more of my tech favorites. AdvocateDevil