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To: Charles R who wrote (37240)	4/24/2001 8:00:57 PM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Chuck: It is interesting that you see only a 600Ku pickup for Durons and that too at a lower ASP since Q2 is the first quarter that Duron has full infrastructure support. Now, I'm not Joe, but this one I think I can field ;-) Q2 is traditionally the weakest quarter and while the economy may bottom during it, odds are good that it will be tough to ship many more Durons. Also, why are you forecasting only a 100Ku drop on Athlons? I forecast a slightly larger drop than Joe (200k), but still not a lot. My reasoning is simple: There is no price differentiation between Athlon and Duron - they are completely linear with frequency (well, almost). That naturally pushes the demand towards Athlons (better branding), as well as higher frequencies. As for P4 competition, I'll believe it when I see it ;-). Just like Palomino. Seriously though... if you look at the rather substantial Athlon ASP erosion (Joe 10%, me 14%), much of that can be directly attributed to an increase in competitive pressures. -fyo

To: Charles R who wrote (37240)	4/25/2001 1:52:03 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Chuck, If my memory serves me right, Jerry said that total K6 revenues were under $30M which would indicate K6 ASP of about $37. I will have to look at JC's transcript again. A lot of us were confused by the $95 K7 ASP, which, when plugged into a formula, yielded K6 ASP that was just too high. Your guess of $37 sounds just about right, which is probably and increase from Q4, due to higher percentage of notebook chips vs. desktop. It is interesting that you see only a 600Ku pickup for Durons and that too at a lower ASP since Q2 is the first quarter that Duron has full infrastructure support. Do you predict higher? My prediction is the highest of the people who entered their estiates on JC's site (here is how you can do it: Message 15709236 ) Generally, I see AMD continuing to pick up market share, at the cost of lower ASPs, the lower ASPs are just a reaction to the the general price pressure / oversupply of processors. Basically, Duron has matched the cost of Celeron (+ motherboard/chipset) at the end of Q1, but exceeded performance and features (with the Sis chipset), so the door is wide open to take even more share. Q3 should be even better than Q2, since the entire .18u line of P6 processors will be severely squeezed by Duron, and .13u will be only for high ASP notebook parts, not enough to battle in the low end. Also, why are you forecasting only a 100Ku drop on Athlons? Do you not expect P4 to eat into Athlon market share in retail or do you expect corporate design wins to make up for the retail losses? I do expect P4 to eat into Athlon somewhat (hence my prediction of lower Athlon revenue resulting from slightly lower units, and noticeably lower ASPs). But another way to look at it is that the loser will mainly be Piii, since it is less and less competitive, with every clock speed increase of Athlon and P4. I think the white box segment will pick up some of the retail loss. As far as corporate wins, we seem to be getting some lower profile wins from abroad. I am not too optimistic about a high profile US win, since we would have heard some rumors by now. The best hope for a breakthrough may be a dual processor workstation, that was rumored somewhere. The mid range corporate segment may be tough, since it is moving heavily to small form factor boxes, and high end Athlon may be hard to cool. Duron may be a good low end corporate PC. If the corporate world was satisfied with the pathetic 810 chipset, Duron + Sis/KM133 should be a slam dunk, if the decisions were made objectively. Joe