Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Swiss who wrote (164939)	4/25/2001 12:50:03 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Drew, there are 600 million mobile handsets in the market today, of which only 50 million are programmable through the computer. that is, these 50 million digital handsets MUST be programmed through a computer (PC, workstation) to specify what you want uploaded, downloaded, and all other options desired. The expected number of handsets is to rise to one billion by 2005. By 2005, nearly ALL one billion handsets are expected to be programmable through the PC or Workstation. The new models are only now arriving on the shelves. The Nokia 7100 series, and a few Japanese models, have been on the market for a year, well ahead of their competitors. That is, the market will witness a jump from the current 50 million in programmable handsets to one billion expected users within the next four years. It is difficult to believe that this expected rise in programmable handsets will not also give rise to the need for additional PCs, whatever flavor. Some of these handsets will come in the flavor of iPAQs, others as handheld PDAs which don't need programmable hookup, but the majority will remain programmable through the PC due mainly to size restrictions of the handsets. The expected rise in handset use, according to Forrester, may also lead to an expected rise in the use of various PCs as well. What is it about this "mature" PC market that is so separate and distinguishable from the programmable handset market? Handsets do not program themselves. One needs an internet station. One can utilize the wireless sales office which is set-up for such; but this represents an inconvenience for many. Britian enjoys 70% mobile handset market penetration. Of this 70% penetration, only 10% represent programmable handsets. That percentage is expected to rise to 100% in the next three years. It seems reasonable to me that there is a correlation between programmable handsets and the PC. Few analysts have been talking about this correlation to date other than firms like Forrester and Shoschtek. Japan has recently witnessed a correlation between programmable handsets in Japan and increased PC sales. As these SMS iMode handsets began to proliferate, a lagging PC market in Japan also returned to modicum growth. There are other factors as well for this rise in PC sales, but clearly, the rise of the use of the programmable handset among the young people also gave rise to additional PC demand among these same individuals.

To: D. Swiss who wrote (164939)	4/25/2001 1:24:12 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

remember this drew? Dell jumps after signing off on Q1 By Janet Haney, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 5:40 PM ET Apr 5, 2001 ROUND ROCK, Texas (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Dell Computer rose 14 percent Thursday after the PC maker reaffirmed its first-quarter outlook ahead of its spring analyst meeting. Dell, however, remains cautious about the rest of its quarter. Dell jumped $3.06 to $25.25, on volume of 58 million shares. Watch video with Dell CEO Michael Dell. "While a positive, we remain concerned that further deterioration in profit margins may necessitate downward revisions to earnings estimates for the balance of (calendar year 2001)," Salomon Smith Barney analyst Richard Gardner wrote in a research note. The Round Rock, Texas, computer maker (DELL: news, msgs, alerts) is holding its spring analyst meeting in New York City Thursday, ahead of the release of its quarterly results on May 17. Watch Renay San Miguel's interview with Dell COO Jim Vanderslice. Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Fortuna said that Dell Chief Financial Officer Jim Schneider said during its analyst meeting that the company is passing along inexpensive component costs to its customers. Fortuna said Schneider added that demand in the United States remains soft, while Europe, Asia Pacific and Japan continue to perform well. FRONT PAGE NEWS Dow, Nasdaq head north; tech still mixed Philip Morris shares up on price, lawsuit reports General Dynamics bids for Newport News Best month ever for home sales Market news and more! Sign up to receive FREE email newsletters Get the latest news 24 hours a day from our 100-person news team. Dell told the group of analysts and reporters Thursday that it intends to meet analysts' consensus estimates of 17 cents a share, on sales of $8 billion for its first quarter, but will express caution about the remaining four weeks of the period, citing an unpredictable market. The company didn't offer a forecast for the remainder of the year. Dell said it's honing in on expanding its enterprise-class systems business as well as its customer service position for servers and storage products. "Current softness in industry demand and profit margins is not a secret," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell said in a statement. "But in this environment, the differences between Dell and other major companies are compelling." Eric Rothdeutsch at investment firm Robertson Stephens expects that Dell management will highlight how the PC maker is leveraging the Dell model amid the current frail demand environment for PCs, along with how Dell is extracting market share from its competitors. Dell pointed out that shipments in its fourth quarter were up 43 percent and that shipments of its PowerEdge servers rose 63 percent. nothing wrong with these growth numbers drew. i don't think you can effectively isolate margin growth without also comparing it to overall growth in units sold. one balances the other

To: D. Swiss who wrote (164939)	4/25/2001 8:52:05 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Drew - I can't believe people still think this is the "same old DELL". DELL management has said they will run the present model indefinitely - that means 5% or less net, and an increasing demand for excellence of execution as the value. I think that DELL is well positioned to do that - they are now king of the PC hill, and will probably extend that to the low end server space as well. But as we have seen, earnings growth is HARD to come by... and from an investment standpoint, I don't care what DELL's market share or revenue is if they can't take it to the bottom line. If we assume DELL is fairly valued today, what can we expect in the way of earnings growth to justify appreciation in the stock price? Based on what we have seen and the near term projections, DELL would be lucky to see 20% EPS growth in the next 12 months. I think that would put DELL's stock price at mid-30s a year from now... that's way better than putting money in a CD, but people thinking about a DELL investment should really wrap their minds around those kind of numbers, and not the rocket ride we saw in the 90s.