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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (46154)	5/3/2001 1:19:37 PM
From: zsteve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Tony, >>Unless he is being misquoted<< that's what i first thought, but i realized i was wrong after i read the following article. the NVLS guy went further to discuss economic conditions, end users, etc... marketwatch.com Novellus CEO looks for turn in Q4 By Michael Baron, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 12:12 AM ET May 3, 2001 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The chairman and chief executive of Novellus Systems believes the earliest that chip-equipment companies will see an uptick in demand is the fourth quarter of 2001. Speaking at the Merrill Lynch Hardware Technology Conference in New York, Richard Hill said the current downturn in the semiconductor industry could run longer and be more extensive than previous downturns because the root cause is different. "This time around, the front end of the train was stopped by a slowdown in consumer spending. Rising mortgage rates, higher gas prices and increased heating costs all take money out of the consumers' pocket," Hill said. "Before, it was over- or under-production capacity issues that were part of the cycle." In order to sense that a turnaround is underway, Hill said he'll be looking for a return to 15 percent growth in the personal-computer industry. Tax reduction will also have an effect, he noted, as will continued interest arte cuts by the Federal Reserve. Energy costs remain an area of concern for Hill. He said he'd like to see a "consistent energy policy" from the Bush administration because "$5 per gallon for gas in the summer" could squelch a rebound. As for current capacity utilization, Hill said he has seen a variety of rates running from 30 to 80 percent during recent trips to Europe and Asia. "There's no getting around the fact that there's a lot of capacity that needs to be absorbed, and it's going to tale some time to absorb it," Hill told the conference. "I think that's why a lot of people are talking about a 'U' rather than a 'V' [-shaped economic recovery]." Shares of San Jose, Calif.-based Novellus (NVLS: news, msgs, alerts) were down 5.9 percent in recent action, mirroring declines in the broad tech sector. The stock traded at $52.19 in recent action. Michael Baron is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com based in New York.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (46154)	5/3/2001 3:35:29 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

*Re: "This Novellus guy is speaking out of turn."* He's not speaking out of turn - he's doing his job. Understanding how the business of their customers is doing is absolutely vital for equipment makers. Failing to get information on semiconductor sales and fab utilization to the best of his ability could be considered a breach of fiduciary duty, IMO. I would also point out that equipment makers get information from ALL segments of the semiconductor industry, world-wide, which puts them in a much better position to see the big picture than any one or two semiconductor makers in a specific segment of the industry.