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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/10/2001 7:29:06 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>> There is no other way to explain the selloff today. I think it was "sell the news" activity related to the modest Euro rate cut. At any rate, it wasn't much of a selloff with the nasdaq only dipping 28 and then bouncing back in the after hours market. I was able to buy back my May expiry covered calls for pennies on the dollar today, and if the rally materializes next week, will simply write June expiry calls on the spike. uf

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/10/2001 7:32:32 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Very possible but we have 2 sessions left before the cut. If there is no rally into the cut then ironically instead of what everyone's expecting, a tanking after the cut, then it will rally after the cut. Often the market foresees the obvious and acts against that thus making events non-events. In that case, this is the best time to buy. Still I can't agree that shorts will not feel nervous holding positions into a rally. This is setting up to be a short squeeze nomatter what IMHO. Either by Tuesday or right after. Hmm. Well I suppose we all have to adjust our thinking to the realism of the situation. In the meantime tech prices are looking awfully juicy, at least some of the ones I like such as AAPL, WCOM, PALM and so forth.

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/10/2001 7:33:12 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<There is no other way to explain the selloff today.>> There's always explanations galore. And your scenario implies that only the Naz traders have figured this out, but not those who deal with the Dow or even the S+P 500, as those both were green. Actually, the Wilshire total market index didn't show your explanation, either. Don't get me wrong. . . you might be onto something. But trying to explain every single move, up or down, with a neat synopsis doesn't make sense to me. The selloff could be because tech earnings, while seeming to stabilize, are stabilizing in such a way that PEs are still much higher than growth rates. . . and suddenly people realized this. Or it could be profit taking, remembering that we're still up 33% in a little more than a month. Or. . . or. . . . <<Mutual funds are obviously buying tech lately and fund flows have been good into US equity funds and we have seen bonds weak today as well.>> Oddly, TrimTabs, who tracks inflows, turned "cautiously bearish" the other day after being "cautiously bullish." What does that mean? Why'd they say that? I dunno. . . do you? respectfully, the freep

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/10/2001 8:28:25 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

NV, the reason is quite simple over 1 million people were laid off ........... for them it is DEPRESSION and for their neighbors and colleges at work ........... it is RECESSION. Savings are negative so if one needs to live and is unemployed he sells stocks, the other in fear to lose his job starts to save CASH ............. just simple solutions. Further the ones not working do not pay toward their pension plans or 401K ......... double whamy BWDIK Haim

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/10/2001 8:40:26 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There is no other way to explain the selloff today. >>>>> nv, hard to guess what happened today, or yesterday after the gap down on csco earnings and the rebound in the naz, the naz after topping on 4/19, has narrowed into this 50 point range and todays volume was lighter than yesterday, supply and demand have reached equilibrium, since this thing is a volitility gorilla, wouldn't expect it to go dormant like this to long, there are arguments on both sides for which way this thing will break. from a chart perspective, Zeev has a valid point, that the nasdaq trend intermediate term is bearish (over one year), the fundamentals are bearish, the intermediate term trend is very strong and a change of trend is in the show me stage. b

To: t2 who wrote (76800)	5/11/2001 12:23:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99985

What happens when the selloff that traders are expecting does not materialize on Tuesday? Sell on the news does not happen if everyone is expecting it. <g> We get a major league short covering rally starting Tuesday and lasting right into Friday. The real buyers may be waiting for that better buying opportunity that they are expecting. Put it all together, and move up should be explosive! Explosive yes, but perhaps not the way you think. The shorts have been burtnt twice now. Very very badly. All this talk of rising into the close as being bullis is probably nothing more than cautious bears closing out positions. Reload in the morning as appropriate. That is why these tight trading ranges. If greenspan wanted to pull another good one, he should have cuts rates today in the midts of undoubtedly a huge short position on todays gap up. That is what it would take and I doubt a day to day action like that can be planned. Right now the bulls are very very complacent IMHO and the bears are very cautious. Also take a look at max pain and put call ratios. All signs that this rally is over. M