Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16367)	5/22/2001 9:36:31 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Come on Zeev ! The stock market is looking at the BTB 6 to 9 months from now ! That is why the market started to rise from 4/4/2001 Are you trying to tell me that the BTB will be lower 6 to 9 months from now ???? MARKETS DISCOUNT !!!!!! Larry Dudash

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16367)	5/22/2001 9:42:16 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Part of todays problem is everyone remembers 98 and what happened from October to Jan in the semis and they are trying to anticipate a similar move. Remember last month when Joseph of SSB upgraded and the reasoning was it couldn't get any worse. Not to jump in the doom and gloom camp - have you looked @ SSTI's chart lately. Looks good on PnF. Also another I follow LTXX, a tester, also has been strong since January, yes its held up well thru FEB/March relative to naz, just came thru with earnings of 6 cents and b2b of .55. Unfortunately (maybe fortunately) I missed the cc. TA wise many of these charts say we bottomed but maybe the retest starts tomorrow and we get the double bottoms by August. I don't think the b2b will be the catalyst for the retest. Just guessing, who really knows. Hays as of yesterday feels the liquidity leg is strong and sentiment is still ok for this bull leg to continue. Valuation is getting excessive but can still become more excessive. Tim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16367)	5/22/2001 10:04:40 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev: Related info. I seems that Margin debt is stalled at 165 B. nyse.com It peaked in Mar 00 at 278 B. On the plus side no more margin call selling or additonal fight from stocks appears to be in the cards and additional margin debt will lead to higher equity prices. On the minus side, a significant part of the market rally that started in APR 01 at the bottom appears to be somewhat dependent on this additional borrowed money. This is easy to see by looking at MD dramatic increases from 1995 to Mar 00 at the same time broad indexes did their 20%+ annual rise. Declines from Mar 00 in market indexes are proportinal to reduction in MB. As long as investors have confidence to borrow on equities values to buy more equities this market will rise higher from here. Most people will not reduce their margin debt unless the world caves in like did in last 12 months. I feel the worst is over and any dip will be short lived in nature since new money or additional borrowed money will come in. A good part of the $ 2T in MM funds may stay there until things look safe with the economy leading to additional rise in market upon that money's arrival to the party. john New York Stock Exchange Member Firms Customers' Margin Debt January 1992 through April 2001 Year/Month Debit Balances Free Credit Balances Free Credit Balances (yymm) in Margin Accounts in Cash Accounts in Margin Accounts 200009 250,780 74,766 70,960 200010 233,380 73,410 82,990 200011 219,110 74,050 96,730 200012 198,790 84,400 100,680 200101 197,110 81,380 90,380 200102 186,810 78,660 99,390 200103 165,350 77,520 106,300 200104 166,940 77,460 97,470