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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (48383)	6/23/2001 10:32:12 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The total US economy is a little over $9 trillion. The $40 billion tax rebate is about 0.4% of GDP. That doesn't sound terribly significant to me. Moreover, the $40 billion isn't "new" money that magically appeared. If it weren't for the rebate, it would still get spent, either on government programs or on retiring a portion of the national debt. I'm not an economist, but it doesn't seem to me that a rebate to taxpayers would be any more stimulative than building highway projects or reducing the federal government's share of the financial markets. The other question is whether the rebate will inspire individual consumers to spend more, or to redistribute the spending they already do. For example, will someone with a $600 rebate buy two computers for back to school, or simply use cash instead of credit to buy one computer? Katherine

To: michael97123 who wrote (48383)	6/23/2001 11:44:44 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Today's Barrons: The "Roundtable" gives a depressing view of the market and techs. Given the negativism, I wonder why they are not shorting techs more (just one guy is). interactive.wsj.com From the article: Dreams Deferred Our pros see more trouble for the market, but value in many stocks Edited By Lauren R. Rublin Around about now, so the conventional wisdom went, the talk on Wall Street would begin to turn from the grim events of the past year -- the Nasdaq's implosion, the death of the dot.coms and the derailment of the U.S. economy -- to the sunnier prospects for the market in the second half of this year and beyond. All would be forgiven, and most of it forgotten, as the economy and bull market once again kicked into higher gear. Well, happy days are not here again, and things will get worse, perhaps a lot worse, before they get better. That's the more-or-less consensus view of the investment luminaries on the Barron's Roundtable, all of whom we chatted with by phone in the past week. Wise they are to a man, and two women. But conventional? You don't reach the top of your game, as these 10 have, by hewing to ordinary ideas and investments, especially in extraordinary times. The members of the Roundtable have little faith in the Fed's ability to cure what ails the economy -- in the short term. Accordingly, they're looking for sharply lower corporate profits, a spike in layoffs and a concomitant pullback in consumer spending over the next several quarters. Taken together, that's a recipe for further setbacks in the stock market's major indexes and in the prospects for many cyclical industries. Beyond this terrain, however, they see numerous inviting if unorthodox investment opportunities, primarily in energy, consumer, media and select financial stocks. We're talking companies swimming in cash, dominating their markets and churning out progressively higher earnings even as the broad economy struggles. As for technology and telecom names, most of our crowd says "Look out below," even when it comes to the sectors' black-and-blue chips. Read on, and you'll learn why.

To: michael97123 who wrote (48383)	6/23/2001 11:46:14 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<40 billion dollars coming to your local mailbox soon in the form of a tax rebate, will give the retail side of things a big boost for the summer/back to school period? > Not one bit. The local city/county government has taken the opportunity to hijack mine right out of the mailbox with a 25% property tax increase. I think I am going to just hold onto the check and endorse it over to them as part of my payment.

To: michael97123 who wrote (48383)	6/23/2001 12:06:45 PM
From: Shoibal Datta	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

40 billion dollars coming to your local mailbox soon in the form of a tax rebate ...and my old TV just died and there went the refund.... Seriously, for the people to whom $300/600 is a big deal - do you see them spending, investing or saving it? I do not think that they will be ready to plow it right back into equities. Quite a few (from my very informal and unscientific poll) were the types who bought JDSU, VNTR and CRA at the top). They might be a little more circumspect now.

To: michael97123 who wrote (48383)	6/27/2001 9:23:36 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

* $40 billion consumer rebate Michael..... Mike Your viewpoint about this effecting the economy is absolutely correct......no point in being ambivalent about the matter. Katherine pointed out that this was only .4% of GDP. (That would be an annual rate). But the tax refund is going out in a three month (or four month) period so the effect will be magnified to 1.2% of GDP for those months. Katherine made the point that this is not new money and would be spend by the government if it were not returned to the people. This is not really true. If consumers have the money in their pockets it will go into circulation immediately. If the government has the money it make take a few years for it to work its way into the economy. (depending how fast the congress and special interest groups act).. This is essentially the argument that Roosevelt made when he wanted to send each family in America a monthly check to get the economy going. (He knew that they would spend it immediately). Republicans killed the plan. Some years back I read that if the government spends a dollar then about 70% to 80% of it will reach main street America. But if and individual spends a dollar on main street America then that dollar has the effect of two or three government dollars. I have no links to back this up but this idea is not often refuted. OT President Hoover * The Great Depression **** The past few days I spent at West Branch, Iowa.... reviewing the materials in the Hoover Presidential Library.... This about the third exit from the Illinois border, on Interstate 80. Well worth the time for those interested in history and the depression era. Its well known that I'm a rabid Democrat (the worst kind available). But Hoover is one of my favorite presidents. Single handedly he rescued about 3.5 million Europeans from death by starvation. (He very efficiently ran the rescue operations for Europe after WW1) He was a great American in spite of what the History channel says about him.He was a very high tech individual that is credited with setting up the first radio licenses when he was Secretary of Commerce, and also the first President to appear on TV (but who was watching?) Regards, Jerome