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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter_luc who wrote (45825)	6/30/2001 1:39:28 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: Tualatin issues Awesome link. I feel obligated to share it with our friends on the Intel thread... :-)

To: peter_luc who wrote (45825)	6/30/2001 1:39:43 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

From x-bit labs: xbitlabs.com; That article is rife with bad grammar, bad assumptions and bad conclusions. Other than that, it stinks. It torques me seeing stuff in print that a lot of contributors here put to shame every day.

To: peter_luc who wrote (45825)	6/30/2001 3:16:51 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

<FONT COLOR=RED>AN IMPORTANT "READ" IF YOU CAN STAND TO READ THROUGH IT ! (MAYBE) re: " 'Low yields' of the Tualatin may indicate general problems with Intel's 0.13µ process. If true, it would certainly open the door for the A4. It may also severely restrict the number of Northwood chips in Q4, thereby saving that quarter for AMD." For some time now I have suspected and, at times posted to that effect, the thesis that the "housE oF inteL", has evolved into a "house of cards", all too ready to collapse under the oncoming set of self-imposed tests, constraints, possibly unachievable objectives, etc. One, possibly obvious symptom of the syndrome of maladies at inteL is the "copperminE" release and all that the various associated events may imply. The very name of that device, regardless of any misleading explanations that inteL has offered, belies the likelihood that, that device had been intended to employ some kind of copper ( probably though not certainly interconnect ) technology. It did not! Why? There are numerous explanations. The only one of them that I reject outright is the one that craiG barreT ( of craiG's cheaP chiP factorY fame or, possibly more appropriately, notoriety ) ( himselF among otheRs at inteL ) has offered: That the technology was totally not needed or even advantageous at 0.18 feature sizes. Much more likely, in my mind, iT, inteL, was simply unable to perform. Given this severe case denial, NIH ( not invented here ) syndrome, and loathing by others in that industry leading to AMD's, "THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND AND THE FRIEND OF MY ENEMY IS MY ENEMY", ability to leapfrog inteL in many areas though its "virtual gorilla" strategy ( a significant part of which is ) getting amazing cooperation from the many inteL enemies out there. It is amazing how many unidentified adversaries will despise and will conspire against an "all powerful KINGMAKER". Another more subtle and possibly as relevant effect is the fact that inteL has become an "OLD COMPANY" by my definition. I once worked for one and I believe that I know how to identify the symptoms. inteL is pervaded by corporate sociological power bases that stifle, in frequent instances, innovation. Those contributors that built the company originally and deserve their many promotions now determine policy and are "never wrong". Fresh brilliant people become threats to the "powers that be" and either adapt to the stifling environment or move on to such struggling "young [ in attitude not years, since AMD is actually chronologically older than inteL is ] companies that are receptive to their inventive genius. Dirk Meyers may well be a study of just such a case. He once, I believe, worked for inteL; he left for some reason and went on to DEC to participate in its Alpha program ( apparently in a crucial manner ) and when inteL appeared to be taking over DEC a few years ago he ended up at AMD eventually to become the father ( in certain ways ) of the various Athlons. inteL, once and still a financial powerhouse, appears to be blowing its financial load in a frenetic attempt to catch up to AMD with less than proven technology; while AMD, suddenly recognized as an intellectual powerhouse, is building into a financial powerhouse on the proceeds from its technological innovation prowess during the past several years. I watch with very great interest as this is to play out. Further, inteL recognizing the maturation ( I believe extremely prematurely of its industry [ I will explain this shortly ] ) is moving on to other identified fertile areas that promise iT superb returns. inteL's error here, among others, is a failure to recognize its own limitations and the aggressiveness of the entrepreneurial nature of the underestimated host of adversaries that it is taking on. All that is positive that it really brings to the table ( I could be somewhat overstating my case ) is very welcome cash. In return it overlays on each "target" iTs stifling corporate "do it this way" approach which will chase many of the good people in these companies away. Just watch! With regard to the industry becoming mature and near saturation. I recall a young and very short sighted immature ANALyst that I knew during the early eighties when I was an analyst. His observations ( among others ), which were persuasive, were that some time before every computer controlled toilet seat in this country would employ several CPUs and some memory, that market would saturate. He also saw a very limited "HOME" market because of the intellectual challenge of computers and that people would hardly be willing to endure a tough day at the office only to come home to a "DOS PROMPT". Remember this was before the advent of the GUI and when DOS was becoming king. My observations since have been that as computer power expands, power hungry applications appear and a market is created for whatever new power is available. My guess is that we are still a log way from the end point. By the way, that very short sighted ANALyst was me. Patient Regards, DARBES