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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (79835)	7/10/2001 8:26:25 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A.S., Just saw Bear Sterns analyst on CNBC pushing EMC and SUNW. The point he is made is very important. He stressed that the fundamentals have not turned around and might even get a little worse. His point was that one has to look at the leading indicators...being the improvement in the economy and even less at pricing power for the companies as that is a lagging indicator. I was questioning your EMC buy but it looks like you made a good decision for at least a good bounce. I just thought there are better tech buys...the type of companies that don't sell very expensive units like EMC. Still think EMC faces a lot of competition and that is why it is not my fav. Another leading indicator...internet stocks are doing better. It is an important indicator for technology even though people don't mention it. Also creates the potential for some short squeezes in many stocks. Record high short interest on the Nasdaq and NYSE! An interesting play developing is Motorola (mot). I have never really liked this company's business position and prefered Nokia. However, I believe we will see the most positive news come out of MOT in the 2nd half of the year. Expecting them to take back some market share as Nokia has to face the prospects of the laws of large numbers. Will be much harder to continue gaining share (still a good company). The recent good news on cdma means more good news for MOT than it does for NOK. I am a little concerned about this earnings report but I believe people will be buying it anyways...I will buy some before and some after earnings. BTW--tech market looks good. There are just too many that are playing on the short side and (IMHO) the mutual funds will be buying. Should be a nice rally for at least a few weeks.

To: American Spirit who wrote (79835)	7/10/2001 8:34:31 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

AmericanSpirit, I have no position and never have had a position in EMC. Agree it is a great company fundamentally. BUT Strictly TA wise, rally to 25 possible, then continuation of trend to H&S measurement of 16 which is also major support. If it gets to that HS measurement and holds it, I'll probably buy some, Roebear

To: American Spirit who wrote (79835)	7/10/2001 8:07:13 PM
From: David W. Taylor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>> 8 points down in one day or the #1 storage company means it's a good buy >> When will you people realize that the raw numbers in a stock price mean nothing? The price of a stock should be determined by the value of the company plus a small premium, if prospects look good or a small reduction, if prospects are poor. Valuation is the number of shares outstanding times current price. Valuations should reflect the real growth rate of profits. Not revenues. Profits. On that basis EMC is worth around $16 at the current 21.2 P/E ratio. All the $8 drop did is bring the stock down to 50% overvalued. $16 is actually reasonable for this level of economic activity.