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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (44362)	7/13/2001 12:55:12 PM
From: Pirah Naman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Great points, Malcolm. I'd even go a step further. There are those who write passionately and convincingly (about market direction, about individual companies, about almost anything investing related) and are lauded for their posts. But can the reader tell if they are right? Is the writer enthusiastic about a technology based upon their expertise, or simply based upon their reading? Does the writer really have the market understanding that their prose seems to suggest, or are they merely rewriting the works of others? LIke you said, Malcolm, we have a tendency to psychologically respond in sympathy with what is written, especially if it reinforces our own beliefs. Perhaps a good "check" on this tendency is to ask ourselves "Could I convincingly defend that position?" And if the answer is no, to suspend belief. Sometimes that pause is enough to clear our heads. - Pirah

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (44362)	7/13/2001 10:23:47 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Malcolm: The post of mine that you are responding to was written in response to DarbyC's REQUEST for comments on his situation. I could have added a great deal more detail to back the opinion. Your response seems to suggest that you do not think that PEs are high at the moment. Do a bit of digging and you will find that for the majority of the Naz stocks they are higher than a year ago,.... a period which is now openly (and accurately) referred to as a "mania". Most of the stocks DarbyC referenced are excellent examples of same. Your comments with respect to steel companies and railroads didn't make any sense to me, at least as it relates to PEs. Perhaps you might want to rephrase the point of view? Your comment that "we should be respectful of bullish or bearish arguments when they address fundamental problems" is bang on and in fact reinforces the point I was making in my post. The fundamentals for the companies DarbyC holds at the moment reek and there is very little evidence available at the moment that even hints at a near term change. Your post seems to suggest that earnings aren't fundamental. That makes no sense whatsoever to me. Earnings are THE fundamental consideration and buying a company's stock when its future earnings are imploding, (or worse), is gambling, not investing. While I rarely post on this thread, I think that you would find that many of my posts in fact do examine broad macro-economic issues such as the insane trade deficit, the manic Fed printathon, the staggering levels of debt currently humped by most North American corporations (never mind the consumer), the sleezy accounting practices utilized by many companies ("pro-forma" earnings, etc.) DarbyC owned up to being a relative newcomer to investing. Commenting on these issues might have been a bit of overkill. If DarbyC wants or needs a couple of pages worth of fundamental reasons why he should dump his INTC, etc. I can happily supply them. I have written a great deal about the deteriorating fundamentals of most of the stocks he owns and I did it at a time when those stocks were at much higher prices and when the N.Y. analytical community was in love with them but NOT doing quality fundamental research on them. Happily, those who paid a bit of attention to that fundamental research are much wealthier today than those who didn't. With respect to "don't lose your capital", it ought to be the prime consideration of anybody who chooses to enter the investment arena. When this is not a prime consideration, it soon becomes irrelevant anyway as those who don't worry about it, are soon carried off the playing field on their shields. Best, Earlie