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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (11758)	7/16/2001 9:06:06 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Don; If I remember your past idea, it was that the semiconductors would most likely lead tech out of the slump; ( when ever that comes ). While I'm not sure they will lead (50/50) on that however I don't think any meaningful rally will go very far without them. All this to say keep an eye on Taiwan, as they are most dependent on wafers, and their market seems to move up or down as they see order flow. quote.yahoo.com^TWII&d=c&k=c1&c=^ixic&a=v&p=m50,m200,s&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c ---------------------- About the dollar , once before it got relatively high and stocks did too ( better than now ) and it was when Asia was having problems, in time though the shit hit the fan via the derivative market and we went down fast..I don't trust this market right now at all. If I pick between Bull, Bear or Bewilidered..I think I'm in the Bewildered class. With the dollar as high as it is it seems to me we should have already rallied a lot more than we have. In spite of the weak market they are still trying to bring some IPOs out, and there is a lot of convertibles being sold. If all the convertibles don't drain off to much liquid they will help put a limit on any rally going forward. The days of wine and roses are gone and will stay gone for a long time, we will be lucky if we can stop the bleeding and get the market to match interest rates, I think those hoping for some new rocket ship back to the moon are dreaming. Shorter term keeping one eye on Taiwan wouldn't hurt. Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (11758)	7/16/2001 9:56:16 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

More News today on Semi industry.. 7:47AM UBS Bearish On Semi Equip. : UBS Warburg is introducing quarterly EPS losses on AMAT, ASMI, ATMI, ESIO, LRCX, VSEA. Firm feels that conditions continue to deteriorate; sees additional downside to present stock valuations in the current environment of reduced EPS estimates and uncertain 2002 growth. ---------------------------- However the above report may have been the result of 6:24AM Asian Markets : Nikkei -0.10%, Hang Seng +0.09% -- Asian stocks mixed in uneventful trading. Nikkei closed a tad weaker with investors sidelined ahead of the earnings deluge out of the US and the Upper House elections in Japan. Electronics machinery makers remained under pressure, while exporters found some reprieve. Taiwan plunged 2.6% to seven-year lows on reports of heavy margin selling, while Korean shares closed flat despite another wave of foreign selling in the semiconductor sector. This was out over an hour before USB went bearish. Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (11758)	7/16/2001 11:56:25 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 52237

Donald, A few comments and questions: >>Now if the market cannot move up nicely this week producing HIGHER HIGHs, I would take that as a short-term negative for the market. This should go the other way, too: If the market fails to make a lower low this week, it will look to break higher. EW wise if the NDX tops the 1865 local high, it is likely to top the 2070 May high as well. >>I was looking at the US DOLLAR chart. Im never sure, but it does look like it may be topping out. To me the Dollar Index looks already over the top. I opened a small long Euro short USD position today, and I already hold one long Aug Gold which is also against the Dollar (looking to add around $262-4). >>ASIA, overall, is now quite weak economicly. Any info on India? I think the sub continent has the potential to be a big G7 style economy in the more distant future. >>...it could be a 3-DAY pattern where DAY-2(FRI) is FLAT, and DAY-3(MON) is up strong. Does the 3rd day has to be strong from morning? Cause today doesn't look that strong so far. I know this market can turn on a dime, but hey... My opinion is we're going lower, with the NYSE old economy giants leading the way. In the Naz MSFT chart looks real bad- the infamous Megaphone formation. Same formation on the SOX is more advanced, and you can see the future movements in MSFT by looking at recent SOX action. CSCO OTOH looks like it suffered enough for now. ATG