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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2107)7/23/2001 1:28:26 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 12410
 
Hi Chip,

Here in the Northwest, we seem to be in pretty good shape on the real estate front. Though I do wonder about the number of new buildings being thrown up here, whilst any number of commercial shells from the last generation of big box retailers moulder on the commercial strips. I guess it must be "good for the economy". Residential real estate seems to be relatively healthy, though by no means a seller's market.

Re: If the financial markets stumble further then this country will drop into a long term recession.
I'm not getting that sense. Aside from the obvious financial market folly in telecom infrastructure, I don't see other huge catastrophes, or even dislocations occurring. We seem to have turned the corner on short energy supplies. Surprisingly, it's the PJM electrical grid just south of you that is the highest priced on the spot and day ahead markets right now. Natural gas is sputterring around in the $2.90's per MCF for the past few days, on it's way down to the low $2's, I'm predicting, and OPEC is considering an inter-meeting conference call to cut production. I just don't see anything huge on the horizon, and I do feel that the slump in techland, while devastating to certain players, isn't going to translate into a systemic catastrophe.

JMVHO, Ray



To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2107)7/23/2001 4:33:33 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12410
 
OT and FWIW - Housing, the next stock market swoon?

Hi Chip,

Re: I like Baum she's a clear thinker.

As you know, I'm more of a fundy than a techy analytically speaking. So, I love it when I get confirmation that the fix is (most likely) in.

You mentioned housing and I found this comment by a very astute contributor (and another clear thinker in Baum's league) here at SI to be germane to that topic as well as the financial markets. Adding the two together, I'm seeing the financial markets avoiding the big stumble you fear by continuing to spoon feed the dumb retail patzer with new ideas......<bg> :

Message 16115040

Best, Ray