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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (129841)	8/9/2001 11:17:37 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

The major tech cycle is over. Tech has matured. Catalysts for lots of additional tech spending by businesses are hard to find, if possible to find. And retail internet usage peaked earlier this year, so don't look to consumers to fuel any new tech rally. Victor, I believe tech is far from matured. Many firms have yet to embrace the efficiencies tech can bring. That is due in my opinion to a lack of understanding of the available options by current management. My stores have had a lot of the records stored on personal computers since mid to late 1980s. However, that was basically, number cruntching, inventory control, accounts payable, receivable, etc. Now there ticket "creators" with SKUs, UPC, automated re-ordering (not meaning an order is printed and then faxed), on-line sales and communication. The last is what has changed the most during the last 18 months. In fiscal 2001 thus far, we have added five computers, two routers and upgraded our LANs from 10 base T to Fast Ethernet.

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (129841)	8/10/2001 3:21:42 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>...major tech cycle is over. I really do disagree with this.( Understand I'm looking 5 years out) As long as progress in reducing feature sizes on chips continues then new apps will appear as the computing power they require becomes economical. For example the digitization of broadcast television has yet to happen in the US, and is only just starting in Europe, but that could consume a lot of silicon when it finally appears. If more computer power makes voice recognition work well enough to be useful then that opens up another huge market. I don't know about the wireless internet, but if 3g just means that people can chat on the phone longer for the same price then I can see that people will want it. Even in the present slowdown US wireless companies are still seeing fast subscriber growth, and the Baby Bells are still signing up lots of customers for dsl. Someday the nirvana of interactive TV, video on demand, will come cheap enough for customers to actually want it. As far as businesses are concerned, I'm sure all those highly paid consultants will find some way keep IT spending up.