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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (11442)	8/18/2001 3:18:15 PM
From: keithcray	Respond to of 208838

That's an interesting article isn't it, Dale? I thought these remarks were particularly impressive as to the "Extreme" nature of the position of the indexes right now.(Not quite sure what "Open 10 Trin" is, some kind of measurement of TRIN averages, I guess.) The OPEN 10 Trin today closed at the second highest, most oversold reading in the past FIFTY years, that being todays Open 10 reading of 1.47. AFTER the crash in 1987, it was 1.58. At THE low major lows in 1974 it was at 1.42 on two days right at the lows. The simple 10-day is at 1.66, bell ringing. The Naz Open 10 is extreme at 1.49. And todays 1.07 CBOE P/C ratio is one of the top closing readings since the major lows in Fall of 1988, and the 10-day CBOE P/C ratio is at .81, second highest 10-day PC ratio since the Fall of 1998 lows! Highest was seen at the recent Mar/April lows, around .85. And AMAZINGLY the McClellan Oscillator, a daily a A/D line oscillator based on the NYSE, closed in positive territory today at plus 9, simply astounding and unprecedented action! Any time previously the TRINs have gotten this extreme, the A/D line action has always been very bad, this has simply NEVER happened before. The TRIN has been the single best indicator in my experience and study, at extremes, in correctly locating major bottoms. Not to the day mind you, but at a time one should be accumulating long positions.

To: DebtBomb who wrote (11442)	8/18/2001 6:40:58 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 208838

I seriously doubt we'll crash in Aug. though, and right in front of FOMC. IMO, the risk is in being short here. Dale ....what have we just done ? LOL! I just can't believe what I'm hearing , and I have just not payed attention to any pundits trying to guess botttoms. What Merrill Lynch and Abbey Cohen have done with their calls have been pretty close to a classic pump and dumps, as far as I can tell. <G> Do the chartists ever look at PE's and individual stories and something called Guidance ? Earnings ? Continued revisions down ? VTSS and the "Glam" semis perfect examples of doing nothing but guiding lower and lower and lower. Read from June: Message 15978692 This indicator or that indicator doesn't hold a candle to the ---->two indicators I tend to follow , which are consumer spending/unemployment and corporate/capex spending especially in IT, semi's and the fibre glut...these were known the entire time , from report after report after report , combined with a Euro-zone slow down , and Japan crash. also from back in June How Fiber Barons Plunged Nation Into Telecom Glut Message 16005689 Just stop and look back on the revisions down and outlooks these company's have had to adjust further down along the way , and it's been no mystery why this market has gone back down . Sure , every home will someday have fibre running to it , and have gone totally wireless...and i hope all that wonderful new technology and capacity is used wisely and for some kind of life~affirming educational purposes and bringing down the walls between human beings , instead of just games etc etc. <gg> That being said , it is always a matter of individual plays for traders short or long at any time and place in the market ...most of the large and mid-cap stocks are still way overvalued...BEAS still has PE of 150. some of the little one's, if picked rightly could be the biggest gainers from a percentile , if one chooses right . EXDS doing 100% moves twice in a month ? (MFNX was fun friday) Find some of those , IMO ! ;-) Marsh PS: Never thought you'd see CIEN with a double-digit PE? peek at it now , LOL...it sure was heading there <gg>