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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (371)	8/28/2001 12:41:40 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Baby Boomers who lose jobs and have to renegotiate for less money can't make mortgage payments. It's as simple as that.

To: Tradelite who wrote (371)	8/28/2001 12:49:04 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

When Baby boomers retire, and want to cash out of homes this will be the death Blow. Boomers are already downsizing, and their children are already up to their eyballs in homes they cant afford. Its only a matter of WHEN the demographics start becoming a net negative.

To: Tradelite who wrote (371)	8/28/2001 1:06:47 PM
From: flint	Respond to of 306849

"many will NEVER sell their homes and would rather die in them and pass them along to their kids." Me and my 5 brothers will not be moving back into my parents home. If the day comes. The house will be sold.

To: Tradelite who wrote (371)	8/28/2001 7:03:38 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Tradelite, Is it possible that negative equity, devolution of career, rising interest rate, need to cut back on consumption, saving for kids' college cost, and shrinkage of financing pool will act in concert to make a good number of the baby boomers want to sell? If yes, then the lack of liquidity and transaction volume, due to reduced or negative economic growth and bad psychology will dictate a relatively low market clearing price. It then follows that the very motivated sellers, at the margin, will cause other "nothing downs" to go into negative equity; and at that point, the still developing equity market implosion will do further damage, in discouraging international cash flow to the US, and raising interest rate. Consider the possibilities. Above admittedly embellished scenario had happened in bits and pieces before, in the US and elsewhere. The construct of the scenario requires no imagination (I had always admitted I have none), and believability of the scenario allows no hope for single minded nifty-fifty, dotcom, slashnet, tech, currency, and real estate bulls. Chugs, Jay Reference: Message 16267873