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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (569)	8/29/2001 8:24:13 PM
From: Geof Hollingsworth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Raymond, Good questions and thank you for the re-focus. My nominee for the hall of shame is the Bank of Charlotte, er, I mean of America. They have the biggest share of the local home lending and consumer lending, and are exposed to the tech companies and our bankrupt utilities as well. The Charlotte boys have screwed up everything else at the old BofA (not that it was all that well-managed to begin with), so it isn't hard to believe that there will be additional bad news coming.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (569)	8/29/2001 8:38:44 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hi Ramsey, <<Now we can focus on what that can make us some money in the STOCK market, in real estate related issues ... >> :0) Ok, let us start with a plan: (a) Identify builders, REITs, and plots of large (difficult to unload) development-zoned land with heavy exposure to nice whether, warm shore line, and demographic theme, like Florida, California, Hawaii (identify route of dive) (b) Position part of NAV away from the US (i.e. depositing scuba gear packs along route of long excursion at 30 meters depth) (c) Prepare cheap sources of financing, with long term potential for negative cost of financing (exercise and eat well before impending dive) (d) Wait for RE, USD, DOW to crash hard, with conviction, and without mercy (dive) (e) Activate all prepared resources and buy, slowly, methodically, all identified targets, starting with REITs, then land, ending with builders (f) Sell builders then REITs, and pay back negative financing cost debt as USD rises inexorably due to economic recovery and aircraft carrier protection and rising interest rate, leaving the Japanese, Indonesians, and Filipino banks with bits of happy paper (g) Retire on land development hobby Any additional refinement you may have more than appreciated. Chugs, Jay Message 16277056

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (569)	8/29/2001 8:47:13 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Ramsey...in your scenario, why didn't John & Jane have an adequate cash cushion in the bank to support the risk of taking out a 90 percent loan on a house? If they lost their jobs, this cash cushion would give them a few months to find another job. In fact, lenders require this type of cash cushion---what kind of lender were they dealing with? In my humble opinion, blame goes first to John & Jane for taking on the responsibility of a 90-percent home loan when they didn't have the savings and job security to back up the risk...and secondarily to what must have been a predatory lender who was willing to take the chance on them without a cash cushion and without considering all the other risks inherent in their loan (i.e. presence of kids, car payments, etc. Are you certain this scenario is realistic today?