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To: The Freep who wrote (11655)	8/29/2001 8:46:35 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Some thought-provoking speak from a lowly Freep. -g I have a quibble though: One scenario we really hadn't seen anyone talk about was a crash/fast decline right here (and beginning of Sept, too, perhaps) followed by a surprise September rally (and the oft talked about October fall). See the first chart on this page from my Aug 11 pretty picture update -- the favoured bear scenario: geocities.com

To: The Freep who wrote (11655)	8/29/2001 8:49:46 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

If you combined a monthly close in the Dow well under 10,500 this month with a slew of index fund redemptions, you would see a quick 20-30% down, based on the little I know about index fund arbitrage positions. So you've got half the recipe already.

To: The Freep who wrote (11655)	8/29/2001 8:53:16 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

a crash/fast decline right here (and beginning of Sept, too, perhaps) followed by a surprise September rally (and the oft talked about October fall). While this may or may not happen, it's the point you make about not expecting it that is most compelling/enlightening. Just as today I didn't see anyone expecting this much of a whoosh from the over zero GDP revision. The capital W whoosh will come when very very few are expecting. (I belive AA has commented on this several times, and the importance of at least having GTC orders in if things look dicey...cuz ya ain't gettin thru online). -dave -dave