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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (7425)	9/5/2001 2:41:20 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, Would you buy the FFF? I remember the FFF club when I was in college. Jim

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (7425)	9/5/2001 3:11:28 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

What does frighten me is really the aftermath of the anticipated bounce. And this does not reflect my view but rather a concern. If the economic outlook of working off the excesses of the past few (or not so few) years should remain less than robust, what then? If equity markets have entered an extended period of retrenchment, the periods of net positive investment will be compressed and less than stellar. There is no etched in granite rule which says that bonds for example cannot outperform equities for an extended period. Simple demographics will bias economic growth to the upside, but I fear that serious money, not us, will take a longer term more negative view toward the equity markets. If you look at a longer term chart of the S&P index for example, the "newtonians" (a body in motion remains in motion in the same direction) see a gaping hole beneath the current level down to a longer term trendline. I am concerned that the medium term investment bias for the next few years could remain bearish toward equities. We could have periods, such as we had this spring when the market is oversold and rebounds to the upper limits of a downtrend but the downtrend remain intact. Right now for example I see the S&P in the middle of its trend with a hundred pts either way, not altering that trend. If you flipped the S&P upside down you would probably be a buyer of it, but rightside up, shouldn't one be a seller? mt

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (7425)	9/6/2001 9:37:55 AM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

In the spirit of continuing to challenge conventional wisdom, I think it was you who mentioned the large cash positions of mutual funds. (If not my apologies) As of last week mutual funds are holding 5 1/2% cash. A very low number historically. They were cash flow negative in July, buying with a net redemption for the month. So it means they are buying, but they don't have much buying power. Kinda positive but not much fuel for sustained rally on that front. Just to balance the post a little. Yes, the put/call ratio which is a short term indicator is bullish. Both index and equity ratios are bullish. mt