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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 8:01:20 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi carranza2, here is the travel log of one fellow traveller in the storm: Message 15113604 Message 15279970 Message 16020847 Message 16139578 Message 16169328 Message 16230052 Message 16267873 Message 16277301 BTW, I am also a perpetual optimist and happy-go-lucky person ... Message 16306093 Chugs, Jay

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 8:05:59 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

the bigger question is, what are you doing during the bear?

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 8:09:19 PM
From: jim black	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I will fess up shamelessly...I thought Globalstar was a bit too risky but stayed with father company Loral and its A*hole CEO Bernard Schwartz. I was also with Maurice on QCOM and rode it high for awhile, made a quarter million and got chicken, bailed too soon and lost out on another half million. Then I started thinking the Telecom hype was getting too thick. Then the battles for 3G with megabucks in Europe, started seeing the madness myself, lost a bit on WCOM and then got out altogether. I was not smart! I was paranoid and lucky, but greed makes me wish for the extra half mil in QCOM. Maurice is staying with 'em, bless his Kiwi soul. So in summary I played a fool's game for awhile and got out with about 80% of my net worth at its highest point intact, before March 2000 debacle. So I listen here with a humble and grateful heart. I also lived through the stagflation nightmare of '73-'74 and its oil crisis and the period in 1980 when gold went over $800US. So I play carefully, acknowledging there are wise cool heads here. Welcome to our paranoia, caution, and ultimate optimism, whereby we conveniently ignore that curmudgeon Keynes who was unkind enough to point out that in the long term we are all dead. jim black

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 8:59:26 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Carranza, as the wise one, Jay, points out, modestly but correctly, those who correctly picked the huge gains which were made, those who correctly picked the irrational exuberance and those who correctly picked the techwreck, were partly wise but partly lucky. We can improve our odds by being really smart, knowing a lot and trying hard, but the luck component is always large. Think Long Term Capital Management. Damn Zenit sank them - a little butterfly in a Siberian forest came roaring through the markets just when they were on a knife edge balance. Over they went and the dominoes started tumbling - to be propped up by Uncle Al. If you congratulate them too much, you'll put a curse on them by inflating their sense of how smart they are. The paranoid won't be tricked by your flattery - they'll grin, but stay concealed and nervous, knowing that luck can run out and hand grenades can be tossed back by the always whispering survivors. Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 9:47:26 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<I thought of you guys as a collection of malcontents who were simply contrary-minded. Turns out you are smack on. Congratulations.> I think there is a big misunderstanding here on SI as to 'bulls' vs 'bears'... overvalued equity markets pumped up by marketing machines aren't good, and those recognizing that fact [overvaluedness] aren't 'bad'... some seem to think being bearish is 'unamerican' or something. Another sign of the top of course in almost any liturature on the subject of manias. <As a perpetual optimist, I find it odd that you are so cheery as things unwind. I suppose it has to do with the opportunities which have been created for you in this market.> I don't think one has to be a pessimist to either see this coming or be 'cheery' as things unwind. Many of us were just as cheery during the run up, and started giggling and then laughing during that period when the NASD doubled in 6 months... the market is just what it is. DAK

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 11:04:08 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

...as I guess this question "what did you do during the mania" addresses Jay as "pars pro toto", here's my part of the answer - feels like my opening night at AA; - Message 16299557 xave.de I'll have to refresh my record with latest data, but Im in the positive territory for the year 8:) IOW, I for one was trying to make money (and keep it) during the mania. Just as the rest of the gang here I guess. Re 'collection of malcontents' etc - there were times, when my portfolio's yearly ROI was in 4 (four) digits area. And average PE of items held (boosted up in a form of leaps) was 200+. Then things started to unravel plus I started to read Fleck. dj PS: sleepless in Munich its 5:00 AM in Munich and I'm waiting for my morning newspaper, so whoever is ready to keep me company (bg for a bashfulgrin), is very welcome - CA, HK, AUS, NZ members of the team?

To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/7/2001 12:45:07 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 74559

carranza2 - what did we do during the mania? Well, what else? Went manic!!! Saw a year's earnings accrete to hypothetical-paper-net-asset-value in a day. Often. Wow. Saw the reverse effect wipe off a lifetime in May of 2000 too. Clawed it back (by bullishly doing nothing) then determined to make such losses a once-in-a-lifetime event. Cashed out. But have I really gone from "bull" to "bear"? No, I am still John. Mr. Market however has suggested my previous "hold the tech" strategy is inferior, and I have shifted tactics because this is Mr. Market's sandbox, so he makes the rules. So even while others might call me a bear, I actually think of myself as a bull-in-disguise. In a strange kind of way you could say I am just planning to buy the biggest dip in history! Why so cheery? What would you do if you were bullish? Totally ready for it: sitting in the cab of a spotlessly empty big yellow earth moving truck. And what if you saw the biggest mama dip of all coming? Wouldn't you be optimistic and full of cheer? Wouldn't you be backing up the truck? Woo Hoo! Buy the dip!!! "patience", says Mr. Market Patience. Buy the right dip! It's coming. John