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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (7525)	9/7/2001 2:39:03 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Demand was growing at 4x per year (1996-1998), but is now maybe 20-40%. Here's where I part company with the experts. People want VOD (Video on demand) but the vast majority don't realize that's truly what they want. The infrastructure isn't in place, the people who currently broadcast video don't want to change the existing system, the content providers aren't ready to release their product, and the cable companies are worried about their current monopolies. I can assure you that if the Quest commercial was true (we have every movie ever made in any language available at any time "on demand"), you would see demand for the infrastructure to escalate beyond your wildest dreams. And that's just with movies. How about any video ever "saved" or archived at the touch of a button, on a whim?? The demand is there and will always be there. Now, when will technology catch up to demand? When will it be "allowed" to catch up by the companies who currently own the infrastructure (RBOCs, MSOs, etc.)?? I feel these are more important issues and they will directly affect the demand estimates quoted by current "experts". What do you think energyplay?

To: energyplay who wrote (7525)	9/7/2001 10:22:17 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

It's the metro/last mile connection, not long haul fiber, that is way under-delivered and offers great opportunity to companies with the right products. more fiber in the ground = equals massive supply overshoot. Video on demand requires a large customer base, and thus requires widespread broadband, which requires much more pervasive, capacious, and intelligent optical switching at the metro level. Not to mention fiber to the curb, or dishes on roofs. I own and like ONIS, OCPI, FIBR (all the more as prices fall), and will buy SCMR. Have also got AVCI and looking at CORV cheaper, but those are really LT speculations. I do agree we're early on the fiber to the curb or in the air buildout, but I see it as the next and none-too-distant step so I'd rather be a bit early than late. Legging into positions with 2-3 buys is the way I play it.