To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (10450 ) 9/23/2001 10:05:34 PM From: Berney Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 11051 MG, My views are decidedly in a minority and decidedly politically incorrect. Being a libertarian at heart, I believe that government has only three absolute roles: 1) To provide for our external defense, 2) To provide for our internal defense, and 3) To provide for infrastructure costs that would otherwise be prohibitive. I really believe that our liberal policies definitely blew number 2. To have a political environment that allowed these pukes to live amongst us for up to 2 years is beyond comprehension. I don't know how I feel about the office of internal security. It may help, but history is just filled with examples where it allowed the government to suppress minority views. In the short-term it will probably help folks continue their illusions that we have any security from folks hell bent on sacrificing their lives in the name of any cause. When I did my Fibo analysis on the indexes last week, I also did one on GE. The .618 retracement from 12/94 is $28.50. It hit it pretty hard Friday and bounced well. I could also make a case that the longer term monthly upper trend line is ~$31. I don't even want to think about this possibility or I may cry. Did update my valuation system this weekend. The top 15 are: BA, TYC, S, JPM, UTX, C, MWD, AOL, MO, WCOM, ENE, MER, ONE, AA, and AXP. Based on estimates of next year's earnings, most of these are trading at PE ratios substantially discounted from the historical average of '93-'00, and their projected 5 year eps growth rates. Of course, the debate rages regarding next year's earnings estimates. However, for example, TYC reiterated guidance last week for this year and next. I don't feel its individual companies that are the problem, as there are lots of great opportunities. However, the Market sentiment is horrible and rightly so. Of the 76 Big Boyz, 56 have a negative stock performance since 12/31/98 . Have to keep laughing at all these folks saying we are going to crash ... Ugh We Did! I have a feeling, that in the next few weeks, we are going to see the commercials start flipping their positions to the long side. We will see ... Just A View from the Swamp TB