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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (57321)	10/5/2001 12:25:02 PM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 275872

"Calculating Q3 AMD WW unit market share: 7.7m * 100 / 28.8m = 26.7%" Fits in good with my WAG of 25%... Thanks for working this out. ragingbull.lycos.com

To: pgerassi who wrote (57321)	10/5/2001 12:29:41 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Pete, Intel must be sitting on a boat-load of P4 inventory. They will have to murder ASPs in Q4 to get rid of these 0.18u chips as 2.4 Ghz Northwood appears this Q4 quarter. This does not bode well for AMD this quarter. Northwood, with double the L2 cache will perform very well and let Intel sell them for $500+. AMD will have to contend with $120 1.8 Ghz P4s. AMD must get to 0.13u, 512 KB cache Athlon ASAP. Pravin

To: pgerassi who wrote (57321)	10/5/2001 12:57:02 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pete, Re: "2) The various worldwide unit market estimates are all down from those third parties like Mercury and others. Last estimate I read was for a 17% decline QoQ." Actually, market research estimates a 17% loss YoY, not QoQ. Unit volumes are actually supposed to be slightly higher than Q2. That means a loss in market share for AMD. wanna_bmw

To: pgerassi who wrote (57321)	10/5/2001 3:12:15 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Pete, If your assumptions were correct, I think Intel would have to have results that are lower than their mid-quarter update, and they would probably have to warn as well. I wonder how AMD made their number of chips, but I guess Jerry's proclamation that they will not lose market share in the last CC meant that AMD sacrificed ASPs substantially to maintain the unit shipments. It is going to be hard for either company to claim that they stuffed the channel, since both companies had to live this quarter with the result of stuffing of last quarter, and the end of Q3, in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, I think there is too much caution on part of the buyers for them to be receptive to the channel stuffing. But on the other hand, there is now the beginning of the Christmas season bookings and orders. We will see how strong that proves to be. Prior to the terrorist attacks, I was optimistic that Q3 would be the low point and Q4 would be up. Now, I have no idea. Joe